Azernews.Az

The independence of the post-Soviet states is at risk, and Ukraine could well be the next target of powerful Russia, which has staged an invasion of Georgia in the past weeks, a former US presidential adviser and analyst says.
Zbigniew Brzezinski branded Russia`s invasion of Georgia as "tragic and potentially ominous".
"Russia`s aggression toward Georgia should not be viewed as an isolated incident," he wrote in a story carried by Time magazine. "The fact is, Putin and his associates in the Kremlin don`t accept the post-Soviet realities. Putin was sincere when he declared some time ago that in his view, the dissolution of the Soviet Union was "the greatest geopolitical disaster of the [20th] century." Independent democracies like Georgia and Ukraine, for the Putin regime, are not only historical anomalies, but also represent a direct political threat."
Brzezinski believes Ukraine could well be the next flash point. He said the Russian leadership has already openly questioned whether it needs to respect Ukraine`s territorial integrity. Russian leaders have also remarked that Crimea, a part of Ukraine, should once again be joined to Russia. Similarly, Russian pressure on Moldova led to the effective partition of that small former Soviet republic.
The analyst wrote that Moscow is also continuing to try to economically isolate central Asian neighbors like Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. And the Baltic nations of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia have been the object of various threats from Russia, including economic sanctions and disruptive cyberwarfare.
Brzezinski wrote further that Russia seems committed to the notion that there should be some sort of supranational entity, governed from the Kremlin, which would oversee much of the former Soviet territories.
He said that for the West, especially the U.S., the conflict between Russia and Georgia poses both moral and geostrategic challenges. An independent Georgia is critical to the international flow of oil. A pipeline for crude oil now runs from Azerbaijan, on the Caspian Sea, through Georgia to the Turkish Mediterranean coast. The link provides the West access to the energy resources of central Asia. If that access is cut, the Western world will lose an important opportunity to diversify its sources of energy.
"The West needs to respond to Russia`s aggression in a clear and determined manner. That doesn`t mean with force. Nor should it fall into a new cold war with Russia. But the West, particularly the U.S., should continue to mobilize the international community to condemn Russia`s behavior."
Brzezinski said Moscow`s ruthless attempt to subdue and subordinate Georgia, a tiny, independent democracy is reminiscent of Stalin`s times, comparing its assault with what Stalin`s Soviet Union did to Finland in 1939. He said Russia engaged in "an arbitrary, brutal and irresponsible use of force" to impose domination over a weaker, democratic neighbor.
Brzezinski served as National Security Adviser to President Carter.