Azernews.Az

By Gulgiz Dadashova

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) revised down the 2013 growth forecast for the 45 developing member countries to 6.3% and cut its 2014 forecast to 6.4%. In April, ADB had predicted the region to grow 6.6% this year and 6.7% next year.

According to the latest Asian Development Outlook Supplement published on July 16, developing Asia had difficulty building momentum in the first half of 2013 despite the marginally better outlook for the advanced economies.

The region was expected to bounce back from its relatively sluggish 6.1 percent growth pace in 2012, but it is now forecast to pick up only slightly to 6.3 percent in 2013 and 6.04 in 2014, a 0.3 percentage point reduction from ADO forecasts.

The Bank also trimmed forecasts for Central Asia, which comprises Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.

In Central Asia, as in other subregions, growth is moderating. The aggregate growth projection for the subregion is revised down from down from 5.5 percent to 5.3 percent in 2013 before edging up to 6.0 in 2014 as forecast in the ADO.

The revision in 2013 reflects sluggish economic performance in Kazakhstan and Georgia, outweighing stronger-than-expected growth in the Kyrgyz Republic.

In Kazakhstan, industrial production grew by a modest 1.8 percent in the first 6 months of 2013 (compared with 2.1 percent in the same period of 2012), as agriculture also grew slowly and construction dragged.

Exports of oil are stagnant, and those of metals and grains are dropping. Growth may recover in 2014, when the Kashagan oil field is to be commissioned.

The report further reads that in Georgia, upcoming presidential elections are creating policy and political uncertainty that is slowing investment as investors shift to a wait-and-see attitude. Faster growth is anticipated in 2014.

Meanwhile, the Kyrgyz Republic posted strong growth of 8.4 percent year on year in the first 6 months of 2013, with industrial production growing by 21 percent as output from the Kumtor goldmine resumed.

ADB is dedicated to reducing poverty in Asia and the Pacific through inclusive economic growth, environmentally sustainable growth and regional integration. Established in 1966, it is owned by 67 members -- 48 from the region.