Azernews.Az

The number of unemployed people will exceed that of the employed in Kazakhstan 1.5 times by 2030, an analyst predicts.

Talgat Mussabekov, Senior Analyst at the Agency on research of profitability of investments, made the remark while answering a question about the demographic tendencies in the country and their impact on the state budget.

"Load on the working population will be 50 percent higher than today," Mussabekov told Trend news agency.

According to him, today five able-bodied citizens of Kazakhstan iaged 24-65 provide the necessary living standard for five citizens of other age categories - for children and the elderly.

"So, today there is one unemployed per employed person," he said.

He said the development of the situation in such a way will require a substantial transformation of tax and pension policies.

"This tendency once more underlines the vital need to increase productivity in the Republic of Kazakhstan, improving the quality of higher and special technical education, as well as considering the issue of the need for the development of state policy for attracting migration labor force to Kazakhstan," Mussabekov said.

According to him, another strategic challenge of Kazakhstan may be the country's inability to sustain high rates of birth and progressively decrease the morbidity and mortality rates.

Despite a more than 10-fold increase in government spending on health care in Kazakhstan, according to the WHO over the past 12 years the infant mortality rate in 2010 still remained at the level of 2000, Mussabekov said.

In 2012 Kazakhstan was holding 107th place among 144 countries for tuberculosis incidence, despite the fact that in 2011 the Republic of Kazakhstan was holding 102nd place out of 142 countries.

Kazakhstan also maintains a leading position among the CIS countries in such diseases such as cancer, diabetes and heart diseases, well ahead of Russia, Belarus, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan.

"If the current dynamics of morbidity and mortality in Kazakhstan remains, these factors will strongly oppose the birth rate growth observed in Kazakhstan in recent years, and will increase the negative effects of demographic trends of the 90s," T Mussabekov said.

He went on to say that the strong growth of Kazakhstan's economy can only be achieved through growth of productivity and jobs in the country.

"At the same time, while making forecasts of trends on Kazakhstan's labor market, it is necessary to take into account the growing demand for labour in the Russian Federation and the outflow of a certain part of the Kazakh workers from the northern and eastern regions of the Republic of Kazakhstan to the Russian Federation," he said.

He said it is necessary to answer some strategic questions. Is Kazakhstan is able to maintain high rates of GDP growth and achieve long-term indicators of economic development, using only the capacity of the domestic labor market? Will the state consider labor migration as a possible solution to the problem?

"If the answer is yes, it would require a huge transformation in the social consciousness of Kazakhstan, as well as in the legislative and the social sphere. Adaptation of migrant workers will significantly increase government spending on all aspects of life support: housing, health, education, social protection etc.," Mussabekov said.

This would require the development of a new policy unique for Kazakhstan that would have covered all the areas of life support of both labor migrants and indigenous people of Kazakhstan Mussabekov concluded.