Iran's nuclear program entails huge costs, few benefits - think tanks
Iran will pursue its nuclear quest although it has reaped few
gains from a totem of national pride that has cost it well over
$100 billion in lost oil revenue and foreign investment alone, two
think-tanks said on Wednesday, Reuters reported.
A report by the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace and the Federation of American Scientists said
Iran's atomic work could not simply be ended or "bombed away" and
that diplomacy was the only way to keep it peaceful.
"It is entangled with too much pride - however misguided - and sunk
costs simply to be abandoned," the report's authors, Ali Vaez of
the International Crisis Group and Carnegie's Karim Sadjadpour,
said of Iran's five-decade-old nuclear program, which began under
the U.S.-allied shah.
"Given the country's indigenous knowledge and expertise, the only
long-term solution for assuring that Iran's nuclear program remains
purely peaceful is to find a mutually agreeable diplomatic
solution," the report said.
Iran says its nuclear work has medical uses and will produce energy
to meet domestic demand and complement its oil reserves.
The United States and other states suspect Iran is covertly seeking
a nuclear arms capability. Israel has threatened military action to
prevent the Islamic Republic from acquiring atom bombs. Tehran
denies pursuing nuclear weapons.
The U.S. and its allies have demanded that Iran curb its enrichment
of uranium and have imposed increasingly tough sanctions on Iran's
energy, banking and shipping sectors that have cut Iranian oil
exports by more than half since 2011.
Iran and six world powers are due to meet in Kazakhstan this week
in hopes of finding a solution to the standoff. Their last meeting
in February failed to achieve a breakthrough.
The report, entitled "Iran's Nuclear Odyssey: Costs and Risks",
seeks to tabulate the opportunity costs of the nuclear program, and
puts these at "well over $100 billion" in terms of lost foreign
investment and oil revenues.
Relatively small uranium deposits will keep Iran from being fully
self-sufficient in nuclear energy, it said, while Tehran has
neglected to maintain existing infrastructure and develop other
resources that could better secure its energy needs.
For instance, Iran's 1,000-megawatt Bushehr nuclear reactor, which
came onstream in 2011 after repeated delays, accounts for just 2
percent of its electricity production, while about 15 percent of
"generated electricity is lost through old and ill-maintained
transmission lines", the report said.
Iran has vast oil and gas reserves, but sanctions have forced major
Western firms to abandon the petroleum sector, making crucial
upkeep difficult. Iran's solar and wind energy sectors have also
gone undeveloped, the report said.
"No sound strategic energy planning would prioritize nuclear energy
in a country like Iran," the report said.
"Instead of enhancing Iran's energy security, the nuclear program
has diminished the country's ability to diversify and achieve real
energy independence."
The authors recommended that outside powers engage with Iranians
through "grassroots public diplomacy" and make clear what they
could gain by compromise.
"The Iranian people have been largely absent from the nuclear
discussion," they wrote. "While U.S. officials and members of
Congress frequently speak of 'crippling sanctions', they rarely
impress upon Iranians the concrete costs of their country's nuclear
policies and the potentially myriad benefits of a more conciliatory
approach."
A lasting deal would have to include commitments by Iran to abstain
from activities vital to weapons production, which could give
confidence that Iran could continue to enrich uranium to low levels
needed for power generation, it said.
"There is virtually no chance that Iran will abdicate what it and
many developing countries now insist is a right - a right to
enrichment," the report said.
Negotiators should also discuss less politically charged topics
such as nuclear safety cooperation and alternative energy options
for Iran, "increasing the chances of breaking free of zero-sum
games and creating win-win opportunities", it said.
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