Azernews.Az

The Washington, DC-based Sidar Global Advisors (SGA) analytical group mentions in its next special research that France may not be regarded as an impartial mediator, due to the recent French Senate vote on 1915 events.

According to the authors, in Turkey PM Erdogan has vehemently criticized the French parliament for approving a "discriminatory and racist bill", but Turkish legislators refrain from launching retaliatory measures and are instead pressing French Senators to appeal to the Constitutional Court.

"In fact, there are a number of diplomatic, political and economic sanctions Turkey could impose. Diplomatic relations could be downgraded to the lowest possible level of charge d’affaires. Turkish airspace and waters could be closed to French military aircraft and vessels. Educational and cultural ties would likely suffer. Officials in Ankara could further press their claims that France had committed genocide against the Algerian people in the 1950s and 1960s", the analysts say.

Meanwhile, because Turkey and France are both members of the World Trade Organization and the EU’s Customs Union, the analysts believe that, "it would not be possible for Ankara to organize an official boycott of French goods and services".

"But, with public opinion in Turkey enraged and all opposition parties backing the stance of the ruling AK Party, Turkish consumer bodies could stage unofficial boycotts of French products. If such a campaign was to be sustained over a prolonged period it would be bound to have an impact on bilateral trade turnover which amounted to about $14 billion in the last year".

The Sidar Global Advisors believe that one likely casualty of a breakdown in Turkish-French relations will be those French firms which are competing to secure lucrative defense contracts in Turkey.