Azernews.Az

WASHINGTON, D.C. – Caucasus may plunge into war if the ‘frozen conflicts’ not resolved, Former Director of Eurasian Policy at US Department of Defense, John Chicky told in an interview to APA.

"The Caucasus region is fraught with risks of conflict if the protracted nature of these conflicts remains so," he said.

"My assessment of the security situation in the Caucasus region is that it remains uncertain. While the region seems generally stable, this stability is very fragile. Whether one looks at the situation in Abkhazia, South Ossetia, or Mountainous Karabakh, the danger that constantly exists is of a small military action along the line of contact (Karabakh) or the administrative boundaries (Abkhazia/South Ossetia) that inadvertently grows out of control and thus into something more serious."

"One shouldn’t ignore the situation in the North Caucasus when examining the security situation in the Caucasus region. The level of violence across the entire North Caucasus republics of the Russian Federation has greatly increased since the summer of 2008. There exists the possibility that North Caucasus violence could spill-over into the South Caucasus."

Answering the question about the prospects of the South Caucasus countries to integrate into NATO, the US Defense expert said that presently, he does not see Azerbaijan becoming a NATO member in the near to mid-term.

"It seems that Azerbaijan is not pursuing NATO membership but rather increased cooperation and it does not appear that NATO is enthusiastic about gaining new members beyond those in the western Balkans.

"Regarding the question of potential NATO membership, first and foremost, Azerbaijan has to decide whether joining NATO is in the national interest of the country. The Azerbaijani government, representing the will of its people, will have to conduct a net assessment of the nation’s domestic and foreign environment considering the opportunities as well as the challenges of possible NATO membership."