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Turkish Ruling Cools Political Showdown

8 July 2010 12:32 (UTC+04:00)
Turkish Ruling Cools Political Showdown

ISTANBUL – An imminent showdown over Turkey's political future appears to have cooled for the summer after its top court decided not to veto proposed amendments to the country's basic law, defying many Turks' expectations that the court would escalate a constitutional crisis.
Turkey's Constitutional Court said late Wednesday it would demand only minor changes to two articles in a package of proposed constitutional amendments that the government wants to put to a September referendum. Market and political analysts alike feared the court would block the package, prompting the government to cancel the referendum and call early elections.
The government said it would now go forward with the constitutional referendum, set for Sept. 12. Turkish analysts and media said elections are now likely to take place on schedule in mid-2011.
The Istanbul Stock Exchange rose 1% in trading Thursday, as economists welcomed the news, saying it had removed an element of political risk they said could have weighed on the market through the summer.
The market rise came as Turkey's central bank chief issued a cautious outlook for one of Europe's best-performing economies, warning of risks ahead from weak demand in Europe.
Central bank Governor Durmus Yilmaz said Thursday that potential liquidity problems in international markets and weakness in Western Europe are dampening the outlook for Turkey, too.
"Low growth expectations in the EU countries, which are our biggest export market, form a serious risk to overseas demand," Mr. Yilmaz said in a meeting with reporters and businessmen in the textile-exporting town of Denizli in southwest Turkey.
Sluggish leading indicators and low levels of consumer confidence suggested "recovery in the Turkish economy would be slow and gradual," he said.
Mr. Yilmaz appeared to reject calls from Turkish exporters for the bank to intervene to weaken the Turkish lira against a falling euro, which is making Turkish exports less competitive.
Turkish gross domestic product posted an 11.7% increase in the first quarter, compared with the same period last year, underscoring the country's relatively strong recovery from the global financial crisis. Much of that growth, however, was due to a base effect from the 14.5% decline Turkey experienced in the first quarter of 2009.
Wednesday night's Constitutional Court decision defused what had promised to be a summer-long crisis. The government's amendment package included key changes that could shift the balance of power in a country where the elected government often vies for influence with the military and the courts.
Supporters of the ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP, and many constitutional experts had argued the Constitutional Court had no right to challenge amendments on their substance, but only on procedural issues. Political temperatures rose in recent weeks after newspapers published wiretaps of a court member discussing the case.
The amendments, which will now proceed to the September referendum, include substantial expansions of the Constitutional Court and the powerful Supreme Board of Judges and Prosecutors that opponents say would allow the government to pack the courts and damage the separation of powers. The Constitutional Court came within one vote of banning the ruling AKP in 2008.
The court didn't challenge those expansions, but changed the proposed selection procedures, primarily to give Turkey's president - currently the AKP's Abdullah Gül - a smaller role in the process. The court also left untouched clauses that would give civilian courts more powers over Turkey's military.
"We know that the decision of the Constitutional Court did not satisfy us…judicial guarantees and the separation of powers are in danger," Kemal Kilicdaroglu, leader of the main opposition Republican People's Party, or CHP, said at a party meeting Thursday. Mr. Kilicdaroglu launched a campaign to secure a "no" vote at the referendum.
Public support is high in Turkey for changing the constitution, drafted in 1982 in the wake of a military coup. But the amendment package has been swept up in the fierce struggle between the government and political opponents, who fear the ruling party is gathering too much power and threatens Turkey's secularist traditions. The government says the changes are needed to further Turkey's democracy and its bid to join the European Union.

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