By Abdul Kerimkhanov
Having made recent provocations on the front line with Azerbaijan, Armenia expected that the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) would support Armenia. However, CSTO in no way reacted to the tension initiated by the Armenian side these days on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border.
Being offended by the indifference of the organization, Armenians again started making charges against Russia, the CSTO and members of this organization, as well as making calls to leave this bloc.
Armenians believe that the indifference of CSTO leaves their country alone with Azerbaijan. For some reason, they think that the CSTO is obliged to guard Armenia when it makes provocations on the border with Azerbaijan.
Moreover, Armenia foolishly accuses the CSTO member countries of the fact that they want to get Azerbaijan as a CSTO partner or observer, for which the organization’s members adopted a protocol on amending the Charter.
Some Armenian experts believe that the country should not hope for military assistance of the CSTO members even in the event of the start of hostilities with Azerbaijan.
Moreover, some Armenian media representatives have demanded that Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan initiates the withdrawal of Armenia from not only the CSTO but also the Eurasian Economic Union.
It is obvious that the CSTO leadership perfectly sees the attempts of the Armenian military to provoke Azerbaijan to a powerful blow to the Armenian territory, in order to scream about "Azerbaijani aggression" to the whole world and call on the CSTO assistance.
However, the CSTO members perfectly understand the logic of Yerevan, which did not receive the help of the organization during the April battles in 2016 in Karabakh. Yerevan knows perfectly well that this is impossible, since all the member countries of this bloc recognize Karabakh as the territory of Azerbaijan; respectively, the effect of the treaty does not apply to this conflict.
Therefore, Armenia decided to provoke Azerbaijan for an attack at the territory of Armenia. The general staff of the Armenian armed forces expects that Azerbaijan, tired of the incessant shelling of its territory by the Armenian military, will sooner or later decide to launch powerful artillery strikes on the border fighting posts of Armenia, and then it would be possible to cry that "the CSTO member was subjected to aggression". But Azerbaijan still remains calm, confining itself to pinpoint response fire to suppress Armenian shelling.
Even if, due to incessant Armenian provocations on the border, Azerbaijan is forced to strike directly on the territory of Armenia, most of CSTO members are unlikely to send their troops to assist Armenia. The top leaderships of these countries have repeatedly stated that they would not fight against friendly Azerbaijan.
Moreover, Kazakh officials unequivocally stated that in the event of aggression by any country against Azerbaijan, all the Turkic states would render it all-round assistance.
Belarus earlier adopted a new military doctrine, which prohibits the participation of the country's army in armed operations abroad. The draft law “On the approval of the Military Doctrine of Belarus” was submitted to parliament in April 2016, when military actions were taking place on the contact line of the Azerbaijani and Armenian armed forces. So, Minsk made it clear to the Armenians that they should never wait for the Belarusian army.
As for the main power of the CSTO, despite the fact that Armenia is Russia’s satellite, Moscow understands the importance of maintaining friendly relations with Baku. The Russian leadership will not quarrel with Baku over Yerevan, no matter how Armenians dream about it.
Thus, the CSTO made it clear to the Armenians that the organization will not fall for their provocations on the Azerbaijani-Armenian border. This fact infuriates the Armenian side, forcing it to complain about the CSTO’s “inaction”.
Abdul Kerimkhanov is AzerNews’ staff journalist, follow him on Twitter: @AbdulKerim94
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