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EIA expects rise in global oil consumption

7 June 2017 13:21 (UTC+04:00)
EIA expects rise in global oil consumption

By Sara Israfilbayova

Global consumption of petroleum and other liquids will increase to 98.46 million barrels per day in 2017 and to 100.08 million barrels per day in 2018, said the US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) June 2017 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).

In its May STEO, the EIA forecasted global consumption of petroleum and other liquids at 98.3 million barrels per day in 2017 and at 99.93 million barrels per day in 2018.

Global consumption of oil and other liquids was 96.92 million barrels per day in 2016, according to the EIA.

Liquid fuels consumption in non-OECD countries will grow from 50.07 million barrels per day in 2016 to 51.32 million barrels per day in 2017 and 52.58 million barrels per day in 2018, according to EIA.

OECD liquid fuels consumption will increase from 46.85 million barrels per day in 2016 to 47.14 million barrels per day in 2017 and 47.5 million barrels per day in 2018, the report said.

Meanwhile the agency expects global petroleum and other liquids supply to increase to 98.3 million barrels per day in 2017 and to 100.16 million barrels per day in 2018.

The forecast was slightly decreased compared to the May report, when total world petroleum and other liquids supplies were forecast to reach 98.47 million barrels per day in 2017 and 100.4 million barrels per day in 2018.

Global petroleum and other liquids supplies stood at 97.17 million barrels per day in 2016, according to the EIA.

The EIA has also revised the forecast for supplies from non-OPEC countries.

These supplies are forecast at the level of 59.08 million barrels per day in 2017, as compared to the forecast of 59.04 million barrels per day in the May energy outlook.

In 2018, supplies from non-OPEC countries are expected at the level of 60.3 million barrels per day as compared to 60.18 million barrels per day in the previous report.
Supplies of petroleum and other liquids from non-OPEC countries totaled 58.17 million barrels per day in 2016.

Quarterly global petroleum and other liquids production reached 96.81 million in 1Q2017 and is expected at the level of 97.85 million, 99.06 million and 99.43 million barrels per day in the second, third and fourth quarters of in 2017, respectively.

In 2018 quarterly global petroleum and other liquids is forecast at 99.16 million, 100.12 million, 100.48 million, 100.88 million barrels per day, respectively.

In December 2016, OPEC and non-OPEC producers reached their first deal since 2001 to curtail oil output jointly and ease a global glut after more than two years of low prices. That time, OPEC agreed to slash the output by 1.2 million barrels per day from January 1, while non-OPEC oil producers agreed to reduce output by 558,000 barrels per day starting from January 1 for six months.

On May 25, OPEC and non-OPEC producers agreed to extend their last year’s oil output cut deal for a further period of nine months, with effect from July 1, 2017.

OPEC crude oil production is expected to average 32.3 million barrels per day in 2017 and 32.8 million barrels per day in 2018, about 0.2 million barrels per day and 0.4 million barrels per day, respectively, lower than previously forecast, the EIA further said.

The lower forecast takes into account OPEC’s May 25 announcement regarding the extension of its production cuts.

The reductions will be on the same terms as those agreed in November. “The current forecast assumes OPEC’s cuts are extended beyond next March, but that non-compliance, which begins to grow in late 2017, increases somewhat in the second half of 2018,” said the report.

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