Crisis Group urges defense reform in Azerbaijan
The International Crisis Group (ICG), an
organization working to prevent international conflicts, has issued
a report outlining ways Azerbaijan is seeking to resolve its
long-standing dispute with Armenia.
"Azerbaijan wants to create a strong army to regain Upper (Nagorno) Garabagh and seven adjacent districts, either by improving its negotiating leverage with Armenia or going back to war," says the ICG`s report, entitled "Azerbaijan: Defence Sector Management and Reform."
Armenia has been occupying over 20% of Azerbaijan`s internationally recognized territory since the early 1990s. Years of peace talks have brought few tangible results. Azerbaijani officials have repeatedly warned against Armenia`s policy of aggression, saying the country`s land will be freed at any cost.
The ICG report claims that Azerbaijan has exponentially increased its military budget, though it has not yet gained clear superiority over Armenian forces. If the new military is to be not only stronger but also better governed, the report notes, the country needs deep reforms to make it less corrupt and less personality driven, more transparent and better directed.
So far, there has been insufficient political will either to increase democratic and civilian control or to break the habit of treating the army as, above all, an instrument with which to protect elite interests, the ICG said.
While emphasizing that a war in Upper Garabagh is unlikely in the near future, the report said that the army might "in the longer term (become) fragmented, divided, accountable-to-no-one-but-the-president, nontransparent, corrupt and internally feuding…it could all too easily be sent off to fight to satisfy internal power struggles."
"A modern and efficient army, even if subject to democratic, civilian control, is not unproblematic while the Garabagh situation remains deeply resented in the polity. However, the ability to hold the leadership responsible for expenditures and policy priorities at least has the potential to make the system more responsible and predictable."
The ICG also said that NATO, which is helping with military reforms, should enhance Azerbaijani knowledge of peacekeeping and laws of war, and when possible facilitate dialogue and contacts between the militaries of the two sides. The EU, U.S. and Russia should also reinvigorate current efforts to push the parties to reach a peaceful resolution of the conflict.
According to the ICG, the government`s pledge to significantly reform the military is part of a stated goal of national modernization and democratization. Though the October 15 presidential election was technically improved, it offered no genuine alternative to the incumbent. As democratization has stalled, so too have crucial parts of military reforms. Thus, parliament has failed to oversee military expenditures and has no authority to summon powerful ministers, including the defense minister, the ICG maintained.
The ICG said the defense reforms that have occurred have often been stimulated by cooperation with NATO. Azerbaijan was one of the first former Soviet countries to join the Partnership for Peace (PfP) program in 1994. Of note, the 2005 and 2008 Individual Partnership Action Plans (IPAP) provide a blueprint for democratic control of the armed forces, defense planning and budgeting, coordination with NATO and structural reorganization according to NATO standards. "Baku has often dragged its feet in implementing IPAP-recommended reforms, however, in part at least because it has no clear membership aspirations due to a foreign policy which seeks to balance interests with the U.S., EU, Russia and Iran. Moscow`s August military intervention in Georgia has further convinced Baku of the advantages of an ambiguous policy and made it less ready to push forward with NATO integration."
The ICG said that if the government seeks to pursue a more efficient, NATO-standard military, subject to more democratic civilian control and greater transparency and accountability, it should improve the oversight capacities of the parliament, especially its standing committee for defense and security and the audit chamber; improve public information on and participation in security sector management by publishing the NATO IPAP documents, making it easier to access information on military matters, and setting up a regularly updated defense ministry website; and increase civilian control in the defense ministry. The recommendations also include completing elaboration of a military doctrine and conducting a strategic defense review; amending legislation and military regulations in line with its international human rights commitments, in particular by disallowing detention of service personnel without proper trial; adopting a new law on alternative service and creating a military ombudsman.
In the meantime, the report recommended that NATO carefully review its strategic purpose in working with the militaries of Caucasus states, particularly with respect to unresolved conflicts. It should focus its military cooperation with Azerbaijan strictly on efforts to improve democratic, civilian control of the armed forces and not move beyond the IPAP while the Garabagh conflict remains unresolved.
Azerbaijani MP Zahid Oruj disagrees with the conclusions made in the ICG`s report. "The ICG`s sources of information are dubious, while its analytical research on Azerbaijan is traditionally of a biased nature."
The lawmaker came out against the allegation that despite its increasing defense spending, Azerbaijan has not achieved considerable military supremacy over Armenia. He emphasized that if Russia`s military arsenal in Armenia is excluded, Azerbaijan is the most powerful state in the region based upon the volume and technical characteristics of its weaponry. Oruj also dismissed the ICG`s claim that the army is considered in Azerbaijan to be a tool to protect the interests of the ruling elite. According to Oruj, President Ilham Aliyev commands the support of the overwhelming majority of citizens. "Therefore, any talk of authorities in Azerbaijan leaning on military power is not serious."
As for the assertion that internal struggle may flare up between the country`s power-wielding agencies in the long term, Oruj said these bodies are not "stand-alone" and their work is thoroughly coordinated by the president. Commenting on the statement that Baku has no clear aspirations to become a NATO member, the lawmaker said the alliance, itself, has yet to decide which countries should fill its ranks.
"Back during the Washington summit, NATO assumed responsibility for security in the area outside Euro-Atlantic areas. However, the alliance has failed to make ample contributions to ensuring political security, conflict resolution and restoration of the territorial integrity of states," Oruj said, adding that NATO should end its balanced policy of equating Azerbaijan with Armenia, which is part of a military bloc with regional powerhouse Russia.
Touching on the recommendations to boost civilian and parliamentary control over the armed forces, the MP said these mechanisms are gradually being enforced in Azerbaijan, however, it is wrong to demand the same level of oversight as in countries with established democracies from a country which is in a state of war.
With regard to the suggestions on adopting a law on alternative military service, Oruj said its passage would take some time. "It is necessary to think out all the downsides involved in order not to allow young people`s aspiration toward religious sects and to avoid adverse impact [of the measure] on the combat readiness of the military personnel."
"Azerbaijan wants to create a strong army to regain Upper (Nagorno) Garabagh and seven adjacent districts, either by improving its negotiating leverage with Armenia or going back to war," says the ICG`s report, entitled "Azerbaijan: Defence Sector Management and Reform."
Armenia has been occupying over 20% of Azerbaijan`s internationally recognized territory since the early 1990s. Years of peace talks have brought few tangible results. Azerbaijani officials have repeatedly warned against Armenia`s policy of aggression, saying the country`s land will be freed at any cost.
The ICG report claims that Azerbaijan has exponentially increased its military budget, though it has not yet gained clear superiority over Armenian forces. If the new military is to be not only stronger but also better governed, the report notes, the country needs deep reforms to make it less corrupt and less personality driven, more transparent and better directed.
So far, there has been insufficient political will either to increase democratic and civilian control or to break the habit of treating the army as, above all, an instrument with which to protect elite interests, the ICG said.
While emphasizing that a war in Upper Garabagh is unlikely in the near future, the report said that the army might "in the longer term (become) fragmented, divided, accountable-to-no-one-but-the-president, nontransparent, corrupt and internally feuding…it could all too easily be sent off to fight to satisfy internal power struggles."
"A modern and efficient army, even if subject to democratic, civilian control, is not unproblematic while the Garabagh situation remains deeply resented in the polity. However, the ability to hold the leadership responsible for expenditures and policy priorities at least has the potential to make the system more responsible and predictable."
The ICG also said that NATO, which is helping with military reforms, should enhance Azerbaijani knowledge of peacekeeping and laws of war, and when possible facilitate dialogue and contacts between the militaries of the two sides. The EU, U.S. and Russia should also reinvigorate current efforts to push the parties to reach a peaceful resolution of the conflict.
According to the ICG, the government`s pledge to significantly reform the military is part of a stated goal of national modernization and democratization. Though the October 15 presidential election was technically improved, it offered no genuine alternative to the incumbent. As democratization has stalled, so too have crucial parts of military reforms. Thus, parliament has failed to oversee military expenditures and has no authority to summon powerful ministers, including the defense minister, the ICG maintained.
The ICG said the defense reforms that have occurred have often been stimulated by cooperation with NATO. Azerbaijan was one of the first former Soviet countries to join the Partnership for Peace (PfP) program in 1994. Of note, the 2005 and 2008 Individual Partnership Action Plans (IPAP) provide a blueprint for democratic control of the armed forces, defense planning and budgeting, coordination with NATO and structural reorganization according to NATO standards. "Baku has often dragged its feet in implementing IPAP-recommended reforms, however, in part at least because it has no clear membership aspirations due to a foreign policy which seeks to balance interests with the U.S., EU, Russia and Iran. Moscow`s August military intervention in Georgia has further convinced Baku of the advantages of an ambiguous policy and made it less ready to push forward with NATO integration."
The ICG said that if the government seeks to pursue a more efficient, NATO-standard military, subject to more democratic civilian control and greater transparency and accountability, it should improve the oversight capacities of the parliament, especially its standing committee for defense and security and the audit chamber; improve public information on and participation in security sector management by publishing the NATO IPAP documents, making it easier to access information on military matters, and setting up a regularly updated defense ministry website; and increase civilian control in the defense ministry. The recommendations also include completing elaboration of a military doctrine and conducting a strategic defense review; amending legislation and military regulations in line with its international human rights commitments, in particular by disallowing detention of service personnel without proper trial; adopting a new law on alternative service and creating a military ombudsman.
In the meantime, the report recommended that NATO carefully review its strategic purpose in working with the militaries of Caucasus states, particularly with respect to unresolved conflicts. It should focus its military cooperation with Azerbaijan strictly on efforts to improve democratic, civilian control of the armed forces and not move beyond the IPAP while the Garabagh conflict remains unresolved.
Azerbaijani MP Zahid Oruj disagrees with the conclusions made in the ICG`s report. "The ICG`s sources of information are dubious, while its analytical research on Azerbaijan is traditionally of a biased nature."
The lawmaker came out against the allegation that despite its increasing defense spending, Azerbaijan has not achieved considerable military supremacy over Armenia. He emphasized that if Russia`s military arsenal in Armenia is excluded, Azerbaijan is the most powerful state in the region based upon the volume and technical characteristics of its weaponry. Oruj also dismissed the ICG`s claim that the army is considered in Azerbaijan to be a tool to protect the interests of the ruling elite. According to Oruj, President Ilham Aliyev commands the support of the overwhelming majority of citizens. "Therefore, any talk of authorities in Azerbaijan leaning on military power is not serious."
As for the assertion that internal struggle may flare up between the country`s power-wielding agencies in the long term, Oruj said these bodies are not "stand-alone" and their work is thoroughly coordinated by the president. Commenting on the statement that Baku has no clear aspirations to become a NATO member, the lawmaker said the alliance, itself, has yet to decide which countries should fill its ranks.
"Back during the Washington summit, NATO assumed responsibility for security in the area outside Euro-Atlantic areas. However, the alliance has failed to make ample contributions to ensuring political security, conflict resolution and restoration of the territorial integrity of states," Oruj said, adding that NATO should end its balanced policy of equating Azerbaijan with Armenia, which is part of a military bloc with regional powerhouse Russia.
Touching on the recommendations to boost civilian and parliamentary control over the armed forces, the MP said these mechanisms are gradually being enforced in Azerbaijan, however, it is wrong to demand the same level of oversight as in countries with established democracies from a country which is in a state of war.
With regard to the suggestions on adopting a law on alternative military service, Oruj said its passage would take some time. "It is necessary to think out all the downsides involved in order not to allow young people`s aspiration toward religious sects and to avoid adverse impact [of the measure] on the combat readiness of the military personnel."
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