Azernews.Az

Azerbaijan was assured on Tuesday that Russia has not altered its position on the Upper (Nagorno) Garabagh conflict, despite Moscow`s recent recognition of two Georgian rebel regions that raised fears that it can no longer act as an impartial mediator in regional disputes.
The over a decade-long Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict was high on agenda of talks between Russian and Azerbaijani Presidents Dmitry Medvedev and Ilham Aliyev outside Moscow on Tuesday.
"I confirmed that Russia`s stance remains unchanged, voiced support for further direct talks between the Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents, and assured President Aliyev that we will continue providing the needed assistance in seeking a mutually acceptable solution," Medvedev said after hosting his Azerbaijani counterpart in the Meindorf residence.
Russia co-chairs the OSCE Minsk Group brokering Garabagh settlement, along with the United States and France.
Aliyev said that despite a very complicated situation in the region, "there are good pre-conditions for improving it."
"If the Garabagh problem finds its solution, new prospects will open up for good cooperation," he said.
The Azerbaijani leader emphasized that Baku and Moscow were maintaining high-level relations that could set an example for other regional states. "If everyone enjoyed such good neighborliness ties as Russia and Azerbaijan, there would not be any conflicts, and any misunderstanding altogether."
Aliyev said there was a need for joining effort in bolstering peace and stability in the region.
The Azerbaijani and Russian leaders also discussed economic cooperation. Medvedev said the Russian-Azerbaijani trade is to reach $2 billion by the end of 2008.
"We are content with our partnership. The goals we have outlined during my visit to Baku [early in July] are being reached, and I hope that we will achieve the trade turnover target of $2 billion by the year-end, although the economic situation is not that favorable," Medvedev said.
Aliyev stressed that bilateral trade was rapidly developing and its structure was improving. "We are pleased with the development of our cooperation, which is encompassing very broad ranges."

Expectations from Moscow visit
Russia has a plethora of questions regarding Azerbaijan. Although Baku avoided direct involvement in the military conflict in neighboring Georgia last month, this does not answer all of these questions or meet all of Russia`s demands. Moscow is expecting the South Caucasus republic, which maintained partial neutrality on the issue, to put forth a more clear-cut stance.
Following a brief war with Georgia early in August, President Medvedev signed a decree on August 26 recognizing the independence of Georgia`s rebel regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The move heightened tensions in the volatile Caucasus region and put a further strain on Moscow`s relations with the West. Tbilisi, the U.S. and numerous European powers condemned the move.
Meanwhile, tensions remain high in the region. Unlike the West, Russia tends to take action first and then tries to gain potential allies. Now, Russia says the recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia is irreversible. Furthermore, it has pledged to forge diplomatic relations with the rebel regions soon and is stationing military contingent in the regions instead of peacekeeping forces.
Thus, Russia`s persistence is evident. But the West is not idle either. NATO members are convening in Tbilisi, and an attempt is being made to set up a Georgia-NATO council.
Russia`s problems are not confined to the prospect of Georgia`s admission to the alliance. Its close ally, Armenia, is facing isolation. In addition to that, Russia, despite shattered confidence in its mission on brokering Garabagh settlement, is unwilling to give up its position in the mediating Minsk Group.
Russia, which is losing ground in the South Caucasus, is seeking new strongholds and allies. But the situation leaves a lot to be desired. Even CIS states maintaining close ties with Russia are unwilling to recognize the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and it is futile to expect this step from Azerbaijan as well. Baku has repeatedly said it was firm on supporting Georgia`s territorial integrity.
It is likely that Russia will now attempt to weaken Azerbaijan`s relations with Georgia as much as it can. However, these ties are so deep that dealing a blow upon them will prove a daunting task. Oil transportation routes, the regional group GUAM that comprises both countries, and a railway line that is being built are all factors strengthening these bonds.
It is also possible that Russia will prompt Azerbaijan to sell gas to Georgia for a higher price, and the gas supplies issue will, overall, be a key issue during talks. Additionally, Russia stands firmly on its proposal to buy the entire bulk of gas produced by Azerbaijan.
Furthermore, Azerbaijan`s integration with NATO is closely followed by its northern neighbor, although Baku is acting cautiously in this regard. This carefulness does not stem merely from geo-political reasons. In general, Azerbaijan is exercising caution in its Western integration, and some authoritarian tendencies within the country are holding back these efforts. Now, Russia is leveraging the most support from Belarus and a number of authoritarian Central Asian republics. Aspiring democracies Ukraine and Georgia are now seceding from CIS -- the same way the Baltic states once pulled out of the organization`s predecessor, Soviet Union -- in what analysts describe as the so-called "second collapse" of the USSR.
Most likely, Azerbaijan`s hesitation will do nothing to accelerate NATO`s unfolding advent to the region. Russia continues to assert that it is exercising a fair approach to the Garabagh problem, but this appears as promises with no guarantees. Moscow will keep making these statements only as long as Azerbaijan remains in its sphere of influence and Garabagh diplomacy proceeds under its scenario. It is possible that as time elapses, Russia will toughen its military and geo-political demands to Azerbaijan, although the balance of forces in the region is changing.
But the changing balance and NATO`s interference in the region may prompt Russia to seek expansion of its limited military alliance. Then, it may demand that Azerbaijan join the Collective Security Treaty Organization, a bloc of former Soviet republics, which would essentially restrict the country`s independence.
In any case, this possibility should not be ruled out. If NATO moves to spread its clout in the strategically-important region, Russia will try to create a reliable military circle around itself, and, in doing so, it will appeal to other CIS states.
In any case scenario, Moscow`s friendship is unlikely to bring any benefits. Past experience suggests that in its relations with the former Soviet republics, Russia has been failing to relinquish its empire-like ambitions.