Azernews.Az

Azerbaijan should stay in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), local analysts said, after Western-leaning Georgia and Ukraine moved to secede from the former Soviet bloc that, some believe, is dominated by Russia.
"It is important that Azerbaijan stay in the CIS. Not a single organization is capable of substituting the role of the former Soviet Union for the country in this period, and this will be the case for a long time," analyst Hikmat Hajizada said.
He added that, although Azerbaijan is not represented in the CIS military alliance, it is cooperating with other former Soviet republics in a variety of fields.
"This organization operates in two directions. One of them is the military field, which is under Russia`s leadership, while the other one is in cooperation in humanitarian, trade and economic fields. The latter is important for the ex-Soviet states. Azerbaijani citizens enjoy visa-free entry and exit in CIS states. Azerbaijan needs such cooperation. I am, therefore, against a full collapse of the Commonwealth," Hajizada said.
He said, further, that Georgia and Ukraine`s planned pullout from the CIS posed no threat of the group`s collapsing.
"The activity of Georgia and Ukraine in the CIS has been of a formal nature, and these two countries have not been taking this organization seriously…However, Armenia, the Central Asian states and Belarus, which are under a strong Russian influence, will remain in the CIS, and the entity will continue operating," Hajizada said.
The CIS was established in 1991, after the USSR collapsed, by 12 former Soviet republics. The formerly Soviet Baltic states - Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia - have refused to join the bloc.
The Georgian parliament voted to withdraw from the CIS on Thursday. President Mikheil Saakashvili has said the South Caucasus republic was "bidding farewell to the Soviet Union" and urged other CIS states to follow suit. The statement came after five days of fighting in South Ossetia where Russian troops had intervened.
In Ukraine, a lawmaker has submitted to parliament a package specifying details of the country`s withdrawal. Yuri Kostenko`s proposal will be tabled in the Supreme Rada until the legislature returns from a break on September 1. The pro-Western coalition, which holds a majority in the Ukrainian parliament, is likely to approve Kiev`s pullout from the CIS, analysts say.
However, political analyst Rustam Mammadov said the participation of only three countries is required under CIS by-laws for the group to be considered operational.
"The withdrawal of Georgia and Ukraine does not mean that fewer than three countries remain in the organization. Therefore, the pullout will not cause its disintegration. That requires the withdrawal of all member states."
Mammadov said, however, that steps taken by Tbilisi and Kiev show that the CIS is facing a political crisis.
He emphasized that Azerbaijan has no grounds for an immediate pullout from the union. CIS states, and Russia in particular, represent Azerbaijan`s economic partners, therefore, severing such cooperation is economically unreasonable.
"The severing of ties may lead to a crisis in the Azerbaijani economy," the analyst warned.
Another Azerbaijani pundit, Zardusht Alizada, says the CIS is on the brink of collapse, a consequence of the policy pursued by Russia.
"Georgia and Ukraine`s steps will not cause the CIS to stop operating any time soon, however, the Commonwealth will definitely collapse in the future," he said.
Alizada agreed that Azerbaijan, at this point, should not rush to pullout from the ex-Soviet bloc.