Azernews.Az

Fresh military action may erupt between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the Upper (Nagorno) Garabagh region, a Russian analyst has said.
"The resumption of hostilities is possible, although I don`t think it would be a large-scale operation," said Mikhail Aleksandrov, who heads the department on the Caucasus of the Institute for CIS States.
Aleksandrov claimed that Azerbaijan will try to take action of local scale that is needed for President Ilham Aliyev to conduct his campaign for the October election.
The analyst maintained that in the course of all-out military action, Baku would not win and will have to retreat. He said President Aliyev was striving to resolve the Garabagh problem, otherwise, he would be blamed for failing to do enough to settle the long-standing dispute.
"But I believe that the conflict will not see a solution in the near future. There will be no concessions of principle from the Armenian authorities in this respect. The Garabagh conflict will retain the status quo for a long time.
"Global processes propelled by the economic crisis that will possibly bring about US withdrawal from Iraq and a NATO collapse are currently under way in the world. All these changes will lead to a change in the geo-political layout in the region," Aleksandrov said.
Aleksandrov said the West-backed Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan export oil pipeline was the only factor that could make Baku "think twice" or divert it from launching military action.
"Let`s assume that the hostilities in Upper Garabagh have started. The Armenian side has a full right to deal blows on communications while acting in self-defense, and the West knows it all too well," Aleksandrov alleged.
Commenting on the statement, Azerbaijani former state adviser Vafa Guluzada said Russia was looking to see things spinning out of control in the Caucasus.
"I am referring to the Upper Garabagh [conflict] in Azerbaijan and Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia. Thus, a blow would be dealt upon Western interests in the region and existing communication lines would collapse. Clinging to Azerbaijan`s belligerent statements, subversion would be staged, and in the long run, Azerbaijan would be blamed. But I don`t think they will dare to do so."
The conflict between the two South Caucasus republics reared up in the late 1980s due to Armenia`s territorial claims. Armenia has been occupying over 20% of Azerbaijan`s internationally-recognized territory since the early 1990s. Years of peace talks have brought little tangible result. Azerbaijani officials have repeatedly warned against Armenia`s policy of aggression, saying the country`s land will be freed at any cost.
Guluzada said such statements as Aleksandrov`s were provocative. "The allegations that President Aliyev will use the `Garabagh card` during the election campaign are ridiculous, as the main thing the Azerbaijani government needs ahead of the elections is stability."
As for the allegations on the United States` weakening position in the region and the NATO collapse, the analyst said: "The process of NATO`s strengthening is ongoing around the world. In the backdrop of the USSR collapse and Russia`s faltering, the US is turning into a hegemonic state, while Russia is losing its positions in Europe, Asia, etc., in short, in regions the world over."