Azernews.Az

The war over Upper (Nagorno) Garabagh could begin in 2012 due to the rapid armament of Azerbaijan and Armenia, the International Crisis Group (ICG) says.
The statement was made by the ICG senior analyst on the Caucasus at the discussions on the group's latest report, Nagorno-Karabakh: Risking War, which were sealed off to the broad public.
Claire Delessard said war may be launched at a time Azerbaijan's energy resources will start to dwindle - in 2012. The analyst expressed disappointment at what she described as failure of the two countries' governments to accept the proposals of the mediating OSCE Minsk Group and to prepare their nations for peace.
"Each side believes that time is on its side. Armenia is seeking de-jure recognition of Upper Garabagh's independence and hopes for the Kosovo precedent, while Azerbaijan believes oil revenues will lead to its military supremacy and allow it to get the upper hand in a war with Armenia," the expert said.
Delessard said the world community should heed attention to the Garabagh problem, while the sides - put an end to military propaganda and support peace in 2008, the election year in both countries. She said civil society representatives in both Azerbaijan and Armenia could play a great role in preventing the resumption of military action.
Azerbaijan and Armenia fought a lengthy war that ended with the signing of a cease-fire in 1994, but Armenia continues to occupy Upper Garabagh and seven adjacent Azerbaijani districts. Peace talks have been fruitless so far and refugees remain stranded. The current negotiations - the Prague process, facilitated since April 2004 by the Minsk Group and led by France, Russia and the U.S. -provide the framework for a negotiated settlement.
The Azerbaijani government has said the ICG report was biased. The senior adviser for the President's Office foreign relations department, Hasan Mammadzada, told journalists that Baku was concerned over its content.
Mammadzada said the Crisis Group was an influential organization, regarding the publication of the report as pivotal, but pointed out that it had provided biased feedback on the positions of both parties to the conflict.
Mammadzada said the ICG report did not accurately reflect the facts concerning international recognition of Azerbaijan's territorial integrity, the country's economic growth and the corruption problem. While pointing to Azerbaijan's militarization, the Crisis Group did not cite a similar tendency in Armenia.
"It said the increasing defense spending has led to the escalation of military sentiment, but for some reason the ICG did not express concerns over Armenia's armament," Mammadzada said.
He emphasized that in 1997 Armenia was granted $1 billion worth of weaponry free of charge (by Russia), which was not indicated in the ICG report. The report did not take into account the rights of refugees and has no reference to those responsible for their eviction from their homes.
The report examined "the dangers of ignoring the conflict both for the region and for the wider international community." It said oil money has given Azerbaijan new self-confidence and the means to upgrade its armed forces. Armenia has done surprisingly well economically and is increasing its own military expenditures. With both countries now building military capacity, neither believes it is time to compromise, the ICG said, calling on the world community to ratchet up pressure on the sides to reach agreement.
The ICG said hope for diplomatic progress has been consistently undermined by the parties' lack of political will and insufficient international resolve.
"Over the past few years, the leaderships of both countries have turned their publics increasingly against compromise, while boosting military expenditures. Both trends must be reversed," it said.
Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov has said considering military action to solve the Garabagh conflict was an erroneous approach.
"This is a wrong way to deal with the issue. This step would take us back to the middle of the 20th century when territorial and similar issues were solved through warfare," he said.
Mammadyarov voiced confidence that the conflict would be settled in peace, despite Azerbaijan's rapidly growing military budget. He dismissed statements that the country's increasing military power would result in military action, saying Azerbaijan was primarily seeking a negotiated solution. "I am hopeful that we will find a way to resolve the conflict in peace."
At the same time, Mammadyarov emphasized that Armenia's political will was pivotal to advance the peace process.
"The Armenian leadership should know that keeping [Azerbaijani] territories under occupation and displacing people by ousting them from their native land is a fallacious policy. The sooner they realize this, the better," the minister said.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has ruled out the possibility of the resumption of hostilities between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
"The Garabagh problem cannot be resolved by force," he told a news conference in Moscow.
Lavrov said this was confirmed at a recent OSCE ministerial in Madrid, Spain. "As a common position of the [mediating Minsk Group] co-chairmen, the sides were informed that any military decisions are unacceptable and called on to avoid any actions or statements that afford such a possibility."
Some experts say that Russia, which has provided Armenia that continues to occupy Azerbaijani land in defiance of international law with billions worth of weaponry and military machinery since the 1990s, is sticking to double standards in dealing with the Garabagh problem.