Azernews.Az

WASHINGTON, D.C. – The United States would not impede military action to settle the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Nagorno Karabakh. The US administration has granted Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev carte blanche to liberate the country`s occupied territories, Russian Argumenti Nedeli newspaper reported quoting its sources.

The two South Caucasus republics have been locked in conflict for two decades. Armenian armed forces have occupied over 20 percent of Azerbaijan`s territory since a war in the early 1990s. Peace talks, brokered by the U.S., along with Russia and France, kicked off after the signing of a shaky cease-fire in 1994.

The article claimed that Washington is ready to turn a blind eye to a forceful solution of the conflict, but the war would have to be waged very fast -- similar to the way Croatia resolved its dispute over the rebel Serb Krajina region and the way Georgia attempted to resolve the conflict over South Ossetia. In return, the U.S. is asking President Aliyev to grant it the right to use Azerbaijan`s territory as a foothold for an attack on Iran - first, for intelligence purposes and special operations and then for full-scale military action, the report said.

Argumenti Nedeli said, however, that the Azerbaijani president is hesitant on passing this decision as he is not confident whether or not a surprise offensive would be as successful as Azerbaijan desires.

Meanwhile, rumors about the alleged agreement between the U.S. and Azerbaijan on the Karabakh issue has reached Armenia. Radicals have called on President Serzh Sargsyan to pre-empt a possible war by recognizing Nagorno Karabakh as ``an independent state`` and providing military aid to the rebel region. Some are opposed to this measure.

``The recent sacking of the Yerevan mayor Gagik Beglaryan was the consequence of struggle within the Armenian leadership between the radicals and moderates. It is common knowledge that he spoke out against a formal recognition of Karabakh. He [Beglaryan] therefore faced a provocation, which he could not sidestep, so he had to resign,`` Argumenti Nedeli said.

Though the separatist regime in Nagorno Karabakh declared so-called independence at the time of the Soviet collapse in 1991, this ``independence``, which blatantly tramples on international law, has not been recognized by the world community.

The U.S. has repeatedly said it is opposed to a military solution of the Karabakh conflict but, at the same time, voiced support for the efforts to achieve a negotiated settlement with Russia`s mediation. But these are merely statements made by officials and the words spoken during news briefings, analysts say. In reality, Washington is clearly discontent with Russia`s taking control over peace talks and believes that Moscow`s efforts mostly do not contribute to a solution of the dispute and serve its goal of keeping the situation under its clout. Confidential US diplomatic cables released by the WikiLeaks website have revealed that US and European Union officials say in their closed-door discussions that Russia is not interested in settling the Karabakh conflict. They say that a solution of the problem could undermine the Russian clout in the vital region.

Therefore, the report on Washington`s granting Azerbaijan ``carte blanche`` to swiftly liberate its territories from Armenian occupation through military action, thus changing the current status quo, should be taken seriously. If Azerbaijan regained at least part of its occupied land, it would be easier to prompt Armenia to seek a solution of the Karabakh conflict complying with international law. But Russia is also involved, and it appears that Baku`s hesitations are linked to this factor.

Undoubtedly, if a message about a war plan has indeed come to Baku from Washington, it was Russia that delivered it to the Armenian leaders. Apparently, it is not by mere chance that President Sargsyan disrupted the talks on Karabakh settlement planned on the sidelines of the recent OSCE summit in Astana, and further, speaking at a summit of the Russia-dominated security group CSTO in Moscow in the presence of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, threatened to recognize the rebel Nagorno Karabakh region if Azerbaijan moves to launch war.

Russian analysts say that Sargsyan could not have made such a statement in the Russian leader`s presence without having previously agreed it with the Kremlin. Thus, Russia, which has learned about the confidential US message to Baku, is apparently instigating Armenia to take a tough stance on the Karabakh issue and even to stage provocations on the contact line with Azerbaijani armed forces. For instance, in mid-December the Armenian troops violated the ceasefire by firing a Grad missile into an Azerbaijani-controlled area of the frontline. Azerbaijan`s Defense Ministry responded by issuing a warning to Armenia, saying that blatant ceasefire violations amid tension in peace talks will have dire consequences.

Azerbaijani officials` statements on launching military action have become more frequent. Deputy speaker of the country`s parliament, Ziyafat Asgarov, has lately told reporters that it will soon be clear whether Baku will choose to continue holding talks with Yerevan or move to launch a war.

Asgarov also said that the political and military situation around Karabakh settlement in the world is shifting in Azerbaijan`s favor.

``The day Azerbaijan`s land will be freed from occupation is not far off. You will see that happen,`` he said.

Asgarov criticized Russia over continued armament of Armenia, saying it damages Moscow`s mediating mission.

``We said as early as during Boris Yeltsin`s [former Russian president] tenure that this has to stop, but very unfortunately, no result was achieved though certain commissions had been established,`` Asgarov said. ``Today, a country that has the duty to carry out a peacekeeping mission is arming Armenia. We are very concerned over this. But I also have to note that no matter how much Armenia arms itself, Azerbaijan will still have 10 times more weaponry.``

Azerbaijani analyst Mubariz Ahmadoghlu says the U.S. has not and cannot grant its approval for a military solution of the Karabakh conflict but would not oppose it if Azerbaijan launches military action to free its occupied regions.

Regarding a possible use of Azerbaijani territory, including Nagorno Karabakh, for a US attack on Iran, Ahmadoghlu said this is impossible.

``Most of that territory has been uncontrolled for over 20 years, and Armenian military bases have been stationed in a small area there. Vacating Nagorno Karabakh and other occupied regions and making that territory suitable for stationing US troops` bases would require at least five years. But over those years, the issue of Iran`s nuclear program will be resolved -- regardless of either peace talks or a US military incursion.``