Azernews.Az

Azerbaijan that is keen on taking Upper (Nagorno) Garabagh back from Armenia by force is now actually closing in on the ability to do so, US analytical center Stratfor says.
Azerbaijan is using its petroleum wealth to arm itself for a potential conflict with Armenia over the separatist region. The West does not want to see this conflict re-emerge, but Russia does - to a point, the center said.
Armenia has been occupying part of Azerbaijan's internationally-recognized territory since the early 1990s in defiance of international law.
The experts said Azerbaijan had accused Armenia of stoking unrest in Upper Garabagh after shooting erupted on the frontline March 4 in what was termed as the worst fighting seen in the region in years.
Four Azerbaijani soldiers were killed and one was injured after Armenian armed forces breached ceasefire in the frontline Terter and Goranboy districts. 12 Armenian soldiers died and 15 others were heavily injured during the skirmishes.
The center said the two sides have remained in a tense deadlock over the territory, but the conflict has been relatively dormant since a 1994 ceasefire. International pressure, lack of support from every nation but Russia and Iran, and fear of Azeri retaliation have kept Armenia from annexing the territory. Azerbaijan has been held back from retaking the land due to pressure from the West and the Azeri military's relative weakness.
But the situation slowly has been changing as Azerbaijan has grown stronger and richer following the 2006 completion of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline, which Western companies developed to feed oil to Europe. The BTC led to a more pro-Western Azerbaijan, and the tremendous new wealth it generated has helped the country increase its defense spending from $175 million in 2004 to more than $1 billion at the start of 2008.
"This, of course, has Armenia more than nervous, but the much poorer country can barely increase its spending to follow Azerbaijan's lead. In the past year, Armenia has increased its defense spending by 20 percent, from $125 million to $150 million - almost all of which was spent on boosting its defensive capabilities," the center said.
Stratfor said there was another force pushing for a conflict between the two South Caucasus republics - Russia. Renewed conflict over Garabagh would displease the West, but would suit Russia unless Azerbaijan scores a decisive win - something becoming increasingly likely, however, as Azerbaijan converts its petroleum wealth into armaments.
Stratfor said "having the southern Caucasus in flames" greatly increases Russia's leverage with every player. However, Moscow does have one concern: what if Azerbaijan actually wins the fight against Armenia? A victory by Baku would be a palpable blow against Russian power, allowing Azerbaijan to continue on its Westward push without fear of Moscow.