Azernews.Az

The former Armenian foreign minister Vartan Oskanian claims that if Turkey cannot advance its boldest initiatives in years – the moves to address decades-old tensions with Armenians and Kurds – the country’s own domestic situation, its relations with the two peoples, as well as tensions in the Caucasus, "will undoubtedly worsen".
Oskanian wrote in an article called "A reset in the Caucasus", released by international non-profit group Project Syndicate that "of the several flashpoints in the region, including that between Georgia and Russia over South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the tension between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Upper (Nagorno) Garabagh "is among the most challenging".
"The Armenian-Azerbaijani struggle is more precarious. It is no longer a two-way tug-of-war between two small post-Soviet republics, but part of an Armenia-Turkey-Azerbaijan triangle. This triangle is the direct consequence of the process of normalization between Armenia and Turkey, which began when both countries’ presidents met at a football game."
Oskanian believes that the process now hinges on protocols for establishing diplomatic relations that have been signed by both governments but unratified by either parliament. Completing the process depends directly and indirectly on how Armenia and Azerbaijan work to resolve the Garabagh conflict, the former Armenian minister opines.
"This snarled three-way dispute, if not carefully untangled, holds many dangers. Turkey, which for nearly two decades has proclaimed its support for Azerbaijan, publicly conditioned rapprochement with Armenia on ‘Armenian concessions’ to Azerbaijan."
Oskanian wrote further that Turkey, a NATO member, is thus a party to this conflict now, and any military flare-up between Armenians and Azerbaijanis might draw it in – possibly triggering Russia’s involvement, either through its bilateral commitments to Armenia, or through the Collective Security Treaty Organization, of which Armenia and Russia are members.
Given energy-security concerns, any Azerbaijani conflict would also seriously affect Europe. Iran, too would be affected, since it is a frontline state with interests in the region.
Oskanian also points out that Armenians and Azerbaijanis have not clashed militarily for more than a decade and a half, "but this is only because there has been the perception of a military balance and a hope that ongoing negotiations would succeed."
"Today, both factors have changed. The perception of military parity has altered. With Azerbaijan having spent extravagantly on armaments in recent years it may now have convinced itself that it now holds the upper hand. At the same time, there is less hope in negotiations, which appear to be stalled, largely because they have been linked to the Armenia-Turkey process, which also seems to be in limbo," Oskanian wrote.
He also believes that the diplomatic protocols awaiting ratification by the two countries’ parliaments "have fallen victim to miscalculations on both sides". The Armenians came to believe that Turkey would find a way to reconcile Azerbaijan’s interests with the Turkish opening to Armenia, and would open the border with Armenia regardless of progress on resolving the Garabagh issue. "The problem is that Turkey initially closed the border precisely because of Upper Garabagh, rather than any bilateral issue." *