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Following talks in Germany on the Upper (Nagorno) Garabagh conflict, which came amidst the backdrop of the Azerbaijani president`s warning that a fresh war could erupt with Armenia, the West has focused its attention on the nearly two-decade-long dispute. A variety of sources, including analytical centers and policymakers, have followed up by publishing news and commentary about a possible Garabagh settlement. Though both the parties to the conflict and the mediating OSCE Minsk Group pointed to positive trends in the conflict resolution following the Munich talks between Presidents Ilham Aliyev and Serzh Sarkisian, the overall situation regarding the conflict remains unchanged and talk of a possible resumption of hostilities is evident. Western circles, which have extensive interests in the volatile region, are holding heated discussions on whether these conditions could boil over into a military confrontation. Stratfor, an influential US think-tank, has detailed this threat in a newly published report. This center for analysis said that the strongly worded statement made by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev prior to the latest talks with his Armenian counterpart Serzh Sarkisian on November 22 had moved the Garabagh settlement talks in a new direction.
``Ilham Aliyev has said in the past that Azerbaijan could avail of its military power but said, for the first time, that Azerbaijan is ready to use it,`` Stratfor said.
Specifically, President Aliyev said that if the Munich talks failed to yield results, peace talks with Armenia would be halted and Azerbaijan could move to regain its occupied territories by force.
Stratfor claimed, however, that the Azerbaijani military is not fully prepared to launch a war with Armenia.
A fragile ceasefire has been in place in the region since a brutal war there in the 1990s that claimed some 30,000 lives and displaced about one million Azerbaijanis. Armenia continues to occupy Upper Garabagh and seven adjacent Azerbaijani districts in defiance of international law. The ceasefire accord was signed in 1994, but the OSCE-brokered peace talks have been fruitless so far. Azerbaijan has never ruled out military action to liberate its land and has spent billions of dollars on building its military.
The research center noted that Azerbaijan has boosted its annual military budget from $250 million to $1 billion over the past fifteen years. The resource-rich South Caucasus republic, which has benefited from its oil production and high world crude prices, has increased its military might, while the Armenian economy and army has not been upgraded. Nonetheless, Stratfor maintained, quoting sources in Baku, that the Azerbaijani military needs several more years to complete preparations for war.
Alexander Golts, a Russian analyst, agreed that Azerbaijan`s arms build-up in recent years does not guarantee a victory over Armenia. ``A war just guarantees that the party launching it will be sidelined from the international community,`` he claimed.
However, Stratfor says this does not mean that Azerbaijan would back down from its resolve to wage a war. The think-tank further looked at another aspect of the conflict. It argued that, regardless of whether or not Azerbaijan is ready for a war over Garabagh, President Aliyev`s harshly worded rhetoric is causing problems for Russia in maintaining a balance. If a military standoff resumes, Azerbaijan`s powerful northern neighbor will be prompted to come to the defense of Armenia, its stronghold in the strategically important South Caucasus region, which Moscow does not want to happen. Russia has already witnessed the bitter implications of its brief war with Georgia in mid-2008 and would use every means to avert a fresh war in the region. According to Stratfor, the key goal of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev`s meeting with his Azerbaijani counterpart Ilham Aliyev in the Russian Volga city of Ulyanovsk on November 24 was to convince Baku to refrain from launching military action. Stratfor speculated that Russian President Medvedev most likely brought two main issues to the Azerbaijani leader`s attention. First, if Azerbaijan launches a war on Armenia, Russia will not only become involved in military action but would even take over Upper Garabagh, which would be disastrous for Azerbaijan. Second, in case war is launched, Azerbaijan would lose Russia as a key cooperating partner in the region, the analysts concluded.
But Alexander Golts countered that Russia will not necessarily side with Armenia in the hostilities.
``This is, actually, a very complex issue. But the agreement on collective security refers to that. This was envisioned when the treaty was being drafted,`` the Russian pundit noted.
Russia and Armenia are both members of a regional security group called the CSTO, which was established in 2002. One of the organization`s goals is to provide military aid to a CSTO member in the event of a military threat. Azerbaijan turned down membership in the group.
The Stratfor report said further: ``Azerbaijan senses that it should make a move, but it can`t muster outside support. Russia has warned Azerbaijan that it should tone down its military rhetoric and be cautious. The question now is: will Azerbaijan listen to these warnings?``

Tough response
President Aliyev`s warning about a possible new war has utterly perturbed Yerevan. The government of Armenia, which is struggling to extricate itself from a dire economic crisis and continues reducing its military spending, is worried that Azerbaijan, whose military power is increasing by the year, could resort to military action to free its occupied territories. But the Sarkisian administration is mostly trying to rally public support by making statements designed for domestic consumption and thus present itself as being more powerful than it actually is. The Armenian president`s recent speech apparently serves that goal, analysts say.
``Armenia supports a peaceful settlement of the Upper Garabagh conflict. But we will not allow anyone to lay their hands on Upper Garabagh and are ready to retaliate for this with the toughest measures,`` Sarkisian told a congress of the ruling Republic Party.
Sarkisian maintained that Yerevan remains committed to the principles of a Garabagh settlement.
``The key principles have been our goal, and this is still the case. We are holding talks based on those principles. Clearly, the conflict settlement is an extremely complicated process, and it could take years to adopt a final decision. But the current stage in negotiations gives us hope that it is possible to reach a logical solution to the problem during a reasonable timeframe.``
Sarkisian emphasized that solutions of conflicts could be long-term and steadfast only if they are based on fair and reasonable mutual concessions.
``The era of colonizing nations living in your own territory has long passed. We are stating that the conflict is to be settled on the basis of the Upper Garabagh people`s collective will. In this case, peace could be real and lasting,`` Sarkisian claimed. *