Analyst disbelieves progress in Garabagh settlement
An Azerbaijani analyst questions progress in the
Upper (Nagorno) Garabagh conflict settlement cited after Sunday’s
talks between Azerbaijani and Armenian leaders.
"The optimistic statements citing advances are earmarked mostly for domestic use", says Arastun Orujlu, head of the East-West Research Center.
Following the meeting of Presidents Ilham Aliyev and Serzh Sarkisian in Munich, Germany, both the co-chairs of the mediating OSCE Minsk Group and the sides said the conflict resolution is moving forward. The mediators said the talks were constructive and progress was made "in some areas" during the nearly four-hour meeting, though some issues still remain open.
The analyst believes that Armenia’s staging military drills and Azerbaijan’s increasing belligerent rhetoric shows that the current format of the conflict settlement does not satisfy either party. Therefore, both sides are warning that stability in the region may be disrupted, which would cause a further prolongation of the long-standing dispute.
According to the pundit, major differences remain between Baku and Yerevan. Therefore, signing a framework deal or a final peace accord soon is out of the question, Orujlu said.
A fragile ceasefire has been in place in the region since a brutal war there in the 1990s that claimed some 30,000 lives and displaced about one million Azerbaijanis from their homes. Armenia continues to occupy Upper Garabagh and seven adjacent Azerbaijani districts in defiance of international law. The ceasefire accord was signed in 1994, but the OSCE-brokered peace talks have been fruitless so far. Azerbaijan has never ruled out military action to liberate its land and has spent billions on dollars on building up its military.
"The optimistic statements citing advances are earmarked mostly for domestic use", says Arastun Orujlu, head of the East-West Research Center.
Following the meeting of Presidents Ilham Aliyev and Serzh Sarkisian in Munich, Germany, both the co-chairs of the mediating OSCE Minsk Group and the sides said the conflict resolution is moving forward. The mediators said the talks were constructive and progress was made "in some areas" during the nearly four-hour meeting, though some issues still remain open.
The analyst believes that Armenia’s staging military drills and Azerbaijan’s increasing belligerent rhetoric shows that the current format of the conflict settlement does not satisfy either party. Therefore, both sides are warning that stability in the region may be disrupted, which would cause a further prolongation of the long-standing dispute.
According to the pundit, major differences remain between Baku and Yerevan. Therefore, signing a framework deal or a final peace accord soon is out of the question, Orujlu said.
A fragile ceasefire has been in place in the region since a brutal war there in the 1990s that claimed some 30,000 lives and displaced about one million Azerbaijanis from their homes. Armenia continues to occupy Upper Garabagh and seven adjacent Azerbaijani districts in defiance of international law. The ceasefire accord was signed in 1994, but the OSCE-brokered peace talks have been fruitless so far. Azerbaijan has never ruled out military action to liberate its land and has spent billions on dollars on building up its military.
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