Azernews.Az

Russian Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov`s snap visit to Baku at the weekend that took place amid a spike in tensions between Georgia and Russia, as well as statements and suppositions about NATO-Russia relations, has drawn the attention of Azerbaijani political circles and analysts. Though Azerbaijan`s Defense Ministry has issued a statement detailing the purposes of the visit, this did not stop analysts from speculating on the possible behind-the-scenes issues involved.
Teymur Abdullayev, a spokesman for the ministry, noted that on the first day of his visit, Serdyukov visited the radar station in Azerbaijan`s western Gabala district leased by Russia, followed by talks with his Azerbaijani counterpart, Safar Abiyev. According to Abdullayev, the two discussed prospects for the development of military and military-technical cooperation between the two countries, the current political situation in the South Caucasus region and the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Upper (Nagorno) Garabagh. Abiyev emphasized that Moscow`s efforts aiming to reach a solution to the long-standing dispute ``are commendable and inspire hope.`` ``Nonetheless, in case the conflict is not settled peacefully, the emergence of a military situation is inevitable,`` the Azerbaijani defense chief warned.
Meeting with President Ilham Aliyev on Saturday, Serdyukov said military and military-technical cooperation between the two countries is expanding according to the orders of the Azerbaijani and Russian leaders, Azerbaijan`s state-run Azertag news agency reported.
President Aliyev expressed hope for broadening military collaboration in the future and confidence that Serdyukov`s visit would further that goal.
``In the course of meetings being held with the Russian president, issues of cooperation in this field, just like in other spheres, are always in the focus of attention,`` Aliyev said.
Mubariz Ahmadoghlu, the head of the Center for Political Innovation and Technology, believes that strategic issues are currently a focal point for Russia in the military field. Thus, Russia is trying to turn the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), the military arm of CIS, into a military bloc similar to NATO.
Therefore, strategic military cooperation with Baku meets Moscow`s interests, and the fact that Serdyukov raised the issue of military education during his talks with Azerbaijani officials proves that, the analyst said.
``Both the training of Azerbaijan`s servicemen in Russia and the fact that Azerbaijanis are receiving education in Russian military schools indicate that the targets are strategic.
``Another point is regional security issues, i.e. Azerbaijan can now be Russia`s only ally in the Caucasus. This is unequivocal, because Armenia [Russia`s ally], despite completely serving as Russia`s military base [in the region], is a state that has no outlet anywhere. As for Georgia, it is common knowledge what kind of relations it has with Russia,`` Ahmadoghlu said.
The pundit opined that, if tensions between Russia and Georgia, which already fought a brief war in 2008, spiral into military action again, it is best that Azerbaijan refrain from interfering. In other words, Baku`s supporting either Moscow or Tbilisi in this confrontation would have no impact on the course of developments.
Russia warned on Saturday it would use ``all available force`` to defend against Georgian ``provocation`` after South Ossetia accused Georgia of firing mortars. Tbilisi denied the charge.
Vafa Guluzada, Azerbaijani former state adviser, sees no grounds for concern. He believes that Russia is unlikely to attack Georgia, as this could cause escalation of tensions on the world stage and spark its military stand-off with the United States. This was also stated by the US defense secretary following last year`s intervention by Russia in Georgia`s rebel region of South Ossetia, the analyst reminded.
As for the Russian defense minister`s Baku visit, Guluzada believes that it did not aim to discuss the regional situation. According to the former adviser, Russia is in no need to mull its relations with Georgia or other issues with Azerbaijan. He noted that the northern neighbor would gladly sell large quantities of arms to Azerbaijan, and Serdyukov`s visit served that purpose.
``For instance, Russia could offer [Azerbaijan] the newest weapons, as its financial standing is very challenging. Azerbaijan, itself, is facing a crisis, just like the rest of the world. Therefore, it is hard to say to what extent it will need those weapons now.
``Overall, I believe that the issues discussed by Serdyukov in Azerbaijan were of secondary importance, because the Azerbaijani president has recently visited Moscow and all issues of primary importance were mulled over then,`` Guluzada said.
Guluzada went on to say that Serdyukov had visited the Gabala district merely to tour the radar station, as this facility, ``so to speak, is part of his inventory.``
``Serdyukov is not a military man, but a civilian. So, he may go and see what this station looks like. There is nothing more to it,`` the analyst concluded.
As for the possibility of Azerbaijan`s joining the CSTO, a group dominated by Russia, Guluzada says this is out of the question, as Baku stated as early as during the tenure of former President Heydar Aliyev that it would not consider its accession until the Garabagh conflict is resolved.