Complacency in a Leaderless World
By Joseph E. Stiglitz
Nobel laureate in economics, is University Professor at Columbia University
The World Economic Forum's annual meeting in Davos has lost some
of its pre-crisis panache. After all, before the meltdown in 2008,
the captains of finance and industry could trumpet the virtues of
globalization, technology, and financial liberalization, which
supposedly heralded a new era of relentless growth. The benefits
would be shared by all, if only they would do "the right
thing."
Those days are gone. But Davos remains a good place to get a sense
of the global zeitgeist.
It goes without saying that developing and emerging-market
countries no longer look at the advanced countries as they once
did. But a remark by one mining company executive from a developing
country caught the spirit of change. In response to one development
expert's heartfelt despair that unfair trade treaties and
unfulfilled promises of aid have cost the developed countries their
moral authority, he retorted: "The West never had any moral
authority." Colonialism, slavery, the splintering of Africa into
small countries , and a long history of resource exploitation may
be matters of the distant past to the perpetrators, but not so to
those who suffered as a result.
If there is a single topic that concerned the assembled leaders the
most, it is economic inequality. The shift in the debate from just
a year ago seems dramatic: no one even mentions the notion of
trickle-down economics anymore, and few are willing to argue that
there is a close congruence between social contributions and
private rewards.
While the realization that America is not the land of opportunity
that it has long claimed to be is as disconcerting to others as it
is to Americans, inequality of opportunity at the global scale is
even greater. One cannot really claim that the world is "flat" when
a typical African receives investment in his or her human capital
of a few hundred dollars, while rich Americans get a gift from
their parents and society in excess of a half-million dollars.
A high point of the meeting was the speech by Christine Lagarde,
the International Monetary Fund's managing director, who stressed
the marked change in her institution, at least at the top: deep
concern about women's rights; renewed emphasis on the link between
inequality and instability ; and recognition that collective
bargaining and minimum wages could play an important role in
reducing inequality. If only the IMF programs in Greece and
elsewhere fully reflected these sentiments!
The Associated Press organized a sobering session on technology and
unemployment: Can countries (particularly in the developed world)
create new jobs - especially good jobs - in the face of modern
technology that has replaced workers with robots and other machines
in any task that can be routinized?
Overall, the private sector in Europe and America has been unable
to create many good jobs since the beginning of the current
century. Even in China and other parts of the world with growing
manufacturing sectors, productivity improvements - often related to
job-killing automated processes - account for most of the growth in
output. Those suffering the most are the young, whose life
prospects will be badly hurt by the extended periods of
unemployment that they face today.
But most of those in Davos put aside these problems to celebrate
the euro's survival. The dominant note was one of complacency - or
even optimism. The "Draghi put" - the notion that the European
Central Bank, with its deep pockets, would and could do whatever
necessary to save the euro and each of the crisis countries -
seemed to have worked, at least for a while. The temporary calm
provided some support for those who claimed that what was required,
above all, was a restoration of confidence. The hope was that
Draghi's promises would be a costless way of providing that
confidence, because they would never have to be fulfilled.
Critics repeatedly pointed out that the fundamental contradictions
had not been resolved, and that if the euro was to survive in the
long run, there would have to be a fiscal and banking union, which
would require more political unification than most Europeans are
willing to accept . But much of what was said in and around the
meetings reflected a deep lack of solidarity. One very senior
government official of a northern European country did not even put
down his fork when interrupted by an earnest dinner companion who
pointed out that many Spaniards now eat out of garbage cans. They
should have reformed earlier, he replied, as he continued to eat
his steak.
IMF growth forecasts released during the Davos meeting highlight
the extent to which the world has become decoupled: GDP growth in
the advanced industrial countries is expected to be 1.4% this year,
while developing countries continue to grow at a robust 5.5% annual
rate.
While Western leaders talked about a new emphasis on growth and
employment, they offered no concrete policies backing these
aspirations. In Europe, there was continued emphasis on austerity,
with self-congratulations on the progress made so far, and a
reaffirmation of resolve to continue along a course that has now
plunged Europe as a whole into recession - and the United Kingdom
into a triple- dip downturn.
Perhaps the most optimistic note came from the emerging markets:
while the risk of globalization was that it implied a new
interdependence, so that flawed economic policies in the US and
Europe could torpedo developing countries' economies, the more
successful emerging markets have managed globalization well enough
to sustain growth in the face of failures in the West.
With the US politically paralyzed by the Republicans' infantile
political tantrums, and Europe focused on ensuring the survival of
the ill-conceived euro project, the lack of global leadership was a
major complaint at Davos. In the last 25 years, we have moved from
a world dominated by two superpowers to one dominated by one, and
now to a leaderless, multi-polar world. While we may talk about the
G-7, or G-8, or G-20, the more apt description is G-0. We will have
to learn how to live, and thrive, in this new world.
Copyrights: Project Syndicate
Here we are to serve you with news right now. It does not cost much, but worth your attention.
Choose to support open, independent, quality journalism and subscribe on a monthly basis.
By subscribing to our online newspaper, you can have full digital access to all news, analysis, and much more.
You can also follow AzerNEWS on Twitter @AzerNewsAz or Facebook @AzerNewsNewspaper
Thank you!