Azernews.Az

By Seymur Aliyev

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts an increase of Azerbaijan's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2012.

In its October report on development prospects of the world economy, the IMF projected a 3.9 percent growth in the GDP volume in the fast-growing South Caucasus republic by the end of 2012, 0.4 percent up from the July projections. In 2013, the GDP growth rate is expected at 2.7 percent.

The IMF forecast the inflation rate in Azerbaijan at 3 percent in 2012 compared to its previous forecast of 5-6 percent. The IMF predicted inflation at 6 percent in 2013.

Azerbaijan will have a balance of payments surplus at 20.4 percent of GDP in 2012 and at 16.1 percent in 2013, the IMF predicts.

In June, the World Bank published its forecast on Azerbaijan's GDP growth, which was indicated at 3.1 percent in 2012, 3.5 percent in 2013, and 4.5 percent in 2014. Also, the WB expects a current account surplus at 24.9 percent of GDP this year, 21.6 percent next year, and only 18 percent in 2014.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) issued revised forecasts earlier this year indicating that GDP growth in Azerbaijan is expected to be 2.5 per cent at the end of 2012 and 3 per cent at the end of 2013.

The Azerbaijani government predicts GDP growth this year at 5.7 percent, non-oil GDP growth at 8.6 percent and that of oil GDP at 1.5 per cent. Inflation rate is expected to be 6 percent. The country's GDP is expected to be $55.1 billion.

Azerbaijan's GDP grew 1.5 per cent in the first half of 2012 compared to the same period of last year to reach 25.9 billion manats (nearly $33 billion).

The State Statistics Committee estimates that GDP grew 0.1 per cent to 50.1 billion manats (about $63.8 billion) in 2011. The non-oil sector increased 9.4 per cent, amounting to 48.3 per cent of GDP. The share of the oil and gas sector and processing industries was 51.7 per cent of GDP, while output reduced by 9.3 per cent.