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Review of the financial market

19 April 2012 21:44 (UTC+04:00)
Review of the financial market

Currency strategists say that the flow of news from the euro area remains consistently negative, and the situation in Italy and Spain is precarious. There are risks of further growth pressures on banks, in the case of reduction in their credit ratings, in particular, Fitch warned that the funding situation of the Spanish banks are unlikely to improve, and downside risks prevail. Meanwhile, Greece is also beginning to attract the attention of investors, given that the upcoming elections, on the sixth day of May, bring an element of uncertainty because, according to preliminary surveys, no party can gain a majority. The BBH believe that the euro area began a new round of debt crisis, and predict an increase in pressure on the euro and break support at $ 1.30.

Gold rises in price
Gold prices rose sharply against the backdrop of a weakening dollar after publication of the data on unemployment in the United States.

The number of Americans who first filled the form to receive unemployment benefits rose last week, becoming a witness of a slowdown in the employment market recovery. The primary application for unemployment benefits last week of April 7, increased by 13 thousand to 380 thousand, reaching maximum values from 28 January, as reported today, by the Ministry of Labor in Washington. Economists had expected the figure would be 355 thousand.

In addition, the experts in the near future, expect growth in physical demand for metal, especially after the fact that the jewelers in India completed the strike, which lasted three weeks.

At the same time, investments in gold-backed ETF-funds reached a record high of almost 70.3 million ounces.

May futures on the COMEX for gold today rose to $ 1675.0 an ounce.

Oil price has been increasing for the second consecutive day under the influence of U.S. data on unemployment.

Oil price has been increasing for the second consecutive day after U.S. stocks rose and the dollar weakened on speculation that the central bank would stimulate economic growth through maintaining monetary policy.

Futures rose 1.3% after Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Janet Yellen supported the view that borrowing costs were likely to remain low through 2014. The Bank of Japan headed by Masaaki Shirakawa, stated that it would pursue a ``strong attenuation`` to overcome deflation.

Today the weak data have been published on the number of requests for unemployment benefits, which last week rose to the level of 3-month high (380K). Together with the data on applications for unemployment benefits the statistics on the trade balance were published, which recorded an unexpected reduction in the deficit by more than 12% by the end of February.

May futures on U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) today rose to 104.24 dollars a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The price of May futures for North Sea petroleum mix of Brent mark rose by 0.34 dollars to 120.52 dollars a barrel on London`s ICE Futures Europe Exchange.

During the European session, the dollar continued to rise. During the Asian session, the dollar rose to 79.43. The sharp rise followed the publication of macro statistics from China. Data on the growth of China`s economy was worse than the forecast and the previous value.

Index of GDP in China in the first quarter amounted to +8.1% for the year against the forecast of +8.3%. At the same time it should be noted that the indices of retail sales and industrial production in China came out better than expected. Europe with the opening thought long whether to buy or use a rolled dollar for sales. According to the latest quotations the dollar index increases, while competitors are weakened. The euro / dollar exchange rate is marked by 1.3146, the pound / dollar broke through the Lb line and fell to 1.5917. AUDUSD exchange rate dropped to 1.03689. Price is close to 38.2%. USDCHF exchange rate is trading at 0.9140. Small surge of market activity was observed for the euro, but it was connected with the news about North Korea. North Korea conducted launch of missile, which successfully dropped into the sea.

China`s GDP posted AUDUSD to be corrected
China`s GDP by its value on Friday disappointed investors. China`s GDP in 1st quarter amounted to +8.1% y / y vs. the forecast of +8.3% and the previous value of +8.9%. Industrial production and retail sales in March exceeded forecasts. However, traders do not pay attention to them, and quickly closed long positions in the AUDUSD pair, which caused a wave of purchases in the market dollar for all currency pairs. Industrial production in March amounted to +11.9% y / y (the forecast of +11.4% y / y, the previous value of +11.5% y / y). Retail sales in March rose by +15.2% y / y (the forecast of 15% y / y, the previous value of 14.7% y / y).

European stocks closed higher: FTSE 100 5,710.46 +75.72 +1.34%, CAC 4

U.S. stocks rose as well: Dow 12,933.34 +127.95 +1.00%, Nasdaq 3,053.37 +36.91 +1.22%, S & P 500 1,383.71 +15.00 +1.10% 0 3,269.79 +32.10 +0.99%, DAX 6,743.24 +68.51 +1.03%

JPMorgan (JPM) income as per outcomes of the 1st quarter made up $ 1.31 per share (the forecast of $ 1.15). The revenue for the same period made up $ 27.4 billion (6% y / y, the forecast of $ 4.24 billion). JPM shares rose in premarket by 0.58% to $ 45.10.

An increase of the trade deficit recorded in the UK
Sharp fall in exports to countries outside the EU was observed in February partly because the falling car exports in January increased the trade deficit.

Merchandise trade deficit widened to 8.772 billion pounds in February as compared to 7.883 billion pounds in January, far more than analysts had expected. The average forecast was at 7.6 billion. The target factor was a decline of 1.1 billion, or 8.8% in the exports to countries outside the EU.

The data show a decrease by the 0.4 billion per month in exports of cars, and by 0.3 billion in the production of goods. The drop in exports of cars was especially evident in China, Russia and the United States, and monthly fall in monetary terms, was the largest in history.

The monthly decline in exports of cars is seen as a correction after the growth in car exports in January. Car exports in January rose to 2.2 billion, 0.5 billion more than last month. According to statistics, most of the growth was due to an increase in exports to China, Russia and the United States. January`s monthly increase was the largest in history. Along with this oil exports rose to 3.607 billion in February compared to 3.503 billion pounds in January.

Eurozone: Industrial production data for February showed a mixed trend. According to these statistics provided by Eurostat agency, the European Union showed that industrial production in 17 countries using the euro fell in annual terms in February at the greatest value for more than two years. But the data also reported a sudden high monthly growth in profits in the six regions during the last seven months. The strongest monthly gain was in the Netherlands at 13.0%. Electricity production also increased in February by 7.7% compared with January.

Industrial output grew by 0.5% per month in February and fell by 1.8% per year. The monthly increase was the strongest since August last year, and the annual decline was the biggest since December 2009.

These data were compared with mixed expectations. Economists forecasted a 0.2% growth over the last month and drop of 1.7% year on year, according to a poll by Dow Jones Newswires last week.

Eurostat also revised its monthly estimate for January. Production for the month virtually unchanged, while the reduction for the year was 1.8%. Initially it was assumed that industrial production grew by 0.2% last month and decreased by 1.2% per year.

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