Azernews.Az

BAKU – The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has revised up its forecast for Azerbaijan’s 2011 GDP growth to 5.8% from a previous projection of 3.5 percent in January.

According to the Asian Development Outlook 2011 report, posted on the ADB’s website, the bank expects the South Caucasus republic’s growth to remain at 5.8 pct in 2012. Growth of 8 pct is foreseen in the non-oil sector in 2011 and 2012.

In the Caucasus and Central Asia, average GDP growth is predicted at 6.7 pct this year, up from the previous projection of 5.7 pct, and at 6.9 pct in 2012.

The ADB’s forecast on inflation expected in Azerbaijan in 2011 worsened, rising to 7.5 pct from 4 pct as global price pressures increase. In 2012, inflation is predicted at 7 pct.

The growth of consumer prices in the Caucasus and Central Asia regions will reach 8.2 pct in 2011, up from the previously predicted 6.4 pct. The figure will make up 6.6 pct in 2012, the ADB said.

The report said further that in 2011 and 2012 Azerbaijan will be the leader in Central Asia on the balance of payments surplus. The account surplus will amount to $13.095 billion, or 27.8 pct of the GDP in 2011 and $13.283bn (25 pct of the GDP) in 2012. The surplus will equal those of Hong Kong and South Korea. Moreover, Azerbaijan will be the only South Caucasus country that will post surplus in the balance of payments. In neighboring Georgia, a deficit worth $1.587bn (12.6 pct of the GDP) is expected in 2011 and $1.551bn (11.4 pct of the GDP) in 2012, while in Armenia the figures will be $1.412bn (13 pct) and $1.485bn (12.3 pct) respectively.

According to the ADB, Azerbaijan will post a surplus in its foreign trade balance totaling over $16bn in 2011 and more than $17.3bn in 2012. The country is expected to increase its exports by 15 pct this year and by 10 pct next year, while its imports will grow 12 pct and 10 pct accordingly.

The Azerbaijani government predicts GDP growth at 3.8 pct in 2011 and at 6.4 pct in 2012. Average inflation is forecast at 5 pct in 2011 and 2012.

Azerbaijan’s GDP increased 5 pct in 2010, while inflation made up 7.9 pct. A positive foreign trade balance amounted to $14.725bn, or 1.7 times over the 2009 figure. Surplus in the balance of payments reached $15.039bn, or 47.8 pct over 2009.