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Pound performs best in week as BNP says buy before BOE data slew

31 July 2015 14:26 (UTC+04:00)
Pound performs best in week as BNP says buy before BOE data slew

By Bloomberg

The pound outperformed its Group-of-10 currency peers this week as investors prepared for a flood of Bank of England data on a single day next week that BNP Paribas SA said will support the U.K. currency.

While sterling dropped versus the dollar and euro Friday, it was set for a 0.5 percent gain in a basket of its developed- market peers tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The BOE is changing its policy of staggering releases over two weeks and instead will simultaneously publish its policy decision, minutes of the monetary-policy committee meeting, officials’ votes and new forecasts on each facet of the economy, all on Aug. 6.

“The Bank of England’s quarterly inflation report, the BOE rate decision and the MPC minutes -– all released on Thursday -– could reveal a hawkish bias,” Steven Saywell, London-based global head of foreign-exchange strategy at BNP Paribas, wrote in an e-mailed note. “We recommend positioning for GBP strength ahead.”

The pound declined 0.4 percent to 70.36 pence per euro as of 10:15 a.m. London time, paring its weekly gain to 0.6 percent. Sterling slipped 0.2 percent to $1.5573, headed for a 0.4 percent weekly gain.

BNP Paribas, which is among the top-ranked forecasters of sterling against the euro, predicted the pound will appreciate to 67.50 pence. That level was last seen in 2007.

The pound has climbed against the euro for seven of the past eight months as traders weighed the outlook for a rate increase. Investors are speculating that rates will rise in May, according to forward contracts based on the sterling overnight index average, or Sonia. As recently as July 10, they were betting on August 2016.

The yield on U.K. 10-year gilts rose four basis points since July 24 to 1.97 percent, for the first increase in three weeks. The 5 percent security due in March 2025 dropped 0.445, or 4.45 pounds per 1,000-pound face amount, to 126.33.

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