Asian stocks up with copper before China data; Oil extends gains
By Bloomberg
Asian stocks climbed with metals ahead of Chinese economic data, with the regional equity index set for its longest run of gains since April. Oil advanced for a second day in New York.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.4 percent by 10:45 a.m. in Tokyo, climbing for a fifth day as Japanese, Korean and Australian shares gained. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.3 percent for a second straight decline. U.S. index futures were little changed with Treasuries. Oil advanced on speculation Iran’s nuclear deal won’t unleash a flood of crude exports. Copper added 0.6 percent, while wheat extended losses.
Chinese gross domestic product data is projected to paint a muted picture for the second quarter amid steady growth in industrial production and retail sales. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen addresses Congress, with traders paring bets on interest-rate increases after an unexpected drop in retail sales. The Bank of Japan meets on monetary policy Wednesday.
“Any surprises in China’s data dump will help provide some direction,” wrote Raiko Shareef, a markets strategist in Wellington at Bank of New Zealand Ltd., in an e-mail to clients. Yellen will probably “reiterate her view that a 2015 rate hike looks likely and give away not much else. Ms Yellen’s poker face has come a long way.”
MSCI’s All-Country World Index climbed a fifth day, adding 0.1 percent in early trading. Stocks have been rallying as concern over the dual crises in China and Greece eased, with massive intervention by authorities in Beijing stanching the rout and the Greek prime minister caving in to creditor demands. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index capped a four-day jump last session.
Japan Markets
In Japan, the Topix index rose a fourth day, climbing 0.4 percent. The yen was little changed for a second day, trading at 123.36 per dollar ahead of the BOJ review.
Thirteen of 35 economists surveyed by Bloomberg earlier this month don’t expect further expansion of Japanese monetary stimulus. Twelve project more easing at the bank’s October meeting, down from 14 last month.
Oil’s rebound from a drop of as much as 2.5 percent last session boosted Australian energy producers, which led gains on the S&P/ASX 200 Index. The measure rose 0.9 percent even as BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s biggest mining company, retreated after announcing a writedown of its U.S. shale assets. The Kospi index in Seoul added 0.5 percent.
Iran Deal
West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 0.6 percent to $53.34 a barrel, while Brent gained 0.5 percent to $58.81 per barrel. American oil inventories probably declined last week, a Bloomberg survey showed before an Energy Information Administration report due Wednesday.
“Iran will not be increasing production for some time,” Jonathan Barratt, the chief investment officer at Ayers Alliance Securities in Sydney, said by phone. “There is also the question of how much pressure Israel is going to put on the U.S. Senate in terms of the ramifications of the deal.”
Iran will be able to add 300,000 barrels to 500,000 barrels a day to the market within six to 12 months, according to Richard Nephew, a former sanctions official at the U.S. State Department.
The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fluctuated with the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong. Both gauges fell for the first time in four days Tuesday. The Shanghai Composite is still trading about 25 percent below its June 12 closing high.
China Data
China’s economy grew 6.8 percent last quarter, the least since 2009, according to the median of economists’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. That would mark the first reading below 7 percent since the global financial crisis. China’s market regulator announced more restrictions on stock trading Tuesday
“Whether or not the ’stability measures’ were meant to filter into the economy or not is a side issue but the likelihood they have is high,” Evan Lucas, a markets strategist in Melbourne at IG Ltd., wrote in an e-mail.
Copper climbed to $5,591.50 a metric ton in London, clawing back some of Tuesday’s declines. Zinc rose 0.8 percent, advancing a sixth day. China is the world’s biggest consumer of industrial metals.
Treasuries rose Tuesday after the U.S. retail sales data, with yields on 10-year notes slipping five basis points. The surprise decline in the June sales number may push economists to lower second-quarter growth forecasts as consumer spending accounts for about 70 percent of the economy.
The probability of the Fed raising rates at its September meeting slipped to 27 percent, down from 35 percent on Monday, futures data compiled by Bloomberg showed. For December, the odds of a hike fell to 63 percent from 69 percent. Fed officials in June forecast the central bank would raise borrowing costs twice this year.
Wheat futures for September delivery dropped 0.4 percent, while soybeans lost 0.1 percent. Corn rallied 0.3 percent after sliding the most in 15 weeks on Tuesday on speculation warm weather in the U.S. will boost crops.
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