Dollar strength evaporates as mixed data set table for fed doves
By Bloomberg
A gauge of the dollar remained lower after completing a four-day slide on Monday as investors weighed whether a spate of disappointing U.S. economic data will delay the Federal Reserve’s first interest-rate increase since 2006.
The index that tracks the greenback against its major peers was little changed after closing at an eight-week low in New York before a report on Wednesday forecast to show the U.S. economy grew at the slowest pace in a year. A barometer of services-sector activity slumped in April for the first time since December, indicating the uneven economic growth continued beyond the first quarter.
“Confidence appears to be waning about the strength to withstand higher U.S. rates, while the dollar index is near its historic high,” said Daisuke Karakama, chief market economist at Mizuho Bank in Tokyo. “The dollar is poised for a correction.”
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the U.S. currency against 10 major peers, was 1,178.41 at 12:35 p.m. in Tokyo, after falling to the lowest since March 3 Monday. It closed at 1,222.12 on March 13, the highest in records dating back to 2004.
The dollar traded at 119.07 yen from 119.04 in New York. It was little changed at $1.0883 per euro.
U.S. data from manufacturing to jobless claims have missed forecasts this month. Gross domestic product rose 1 percent in the three months through March 31, according to the median estimate of 79 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
The Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee will release a statement on Wednesday after concluding its two-day meeting.
Under Pressure
“The USD is feeling some pressure as second-tier US data continue in line with the recent trend of undershooting market expectations and with market participants likely keen to reduce risk ahead of the FOMC policy announcement later this week,” Daniel Katzive, Vassili Serebriakov, New York-based strategists at BNP Paribas SA, wrote in a note to clients dated April 28.
The dollar was underpinned against the yen amid speculation the Bank of Japan will reiterate at its April 30 policy meeting that it’s committed to continuing record easing. Twenty-three of 34 economists in a Bloomberg survey forecast the BOJ will expand monetary stimulus by the end of October this year, up from 22 in the survey conducted earlier this month.
During the week to April 21, fading expectations for any imminent BOJ action caused speculators to pare bearish bets on the Japanese currency to the least since October 2012, data by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed.
“For the BOJ, our economists see little appetite for further easing despite slumping inflation expectations in Japan,” the BNP Paribas strategists wrote. “Still, with positioning quite flat in JPY now, we think risk-reward is attractive for USDJPY long exposure into the meeting.”
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