Emerging stocks gain third week led by China; ruble trims rally
By Bloomberg
Emerging-market stocks headed for their third weekly advance as speculation China will take steps to bolster economic growth sent the nation’s shares to a seven-year high. The ruble trimmed a five-day increase.
Train makers CSR Corp. and China CNR Corp. jumped 10 percent in Shanghai. Turkiye Garanti Bankasi AS led gains among lenders in Istanbul, while the lira headed for a weekly drop. Russia’s currency lost 1.9 percent, paring its appreciation in the past five days to 5.5 percent, the fifth weekly advance. OAO Sberbank led declines in Moscow.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index lost 0.1 percent to 1,050.93 by 11:33 a.m. in London. The measure is set for the longest stretch of weekly gains since January as data showing China’s economy grew at the slowest pace in six years last quarter drove bets the government will cut interest rates. Chinese stock futures tumbled after mainland markets closed, signaling shares may fall when trading resumes next week.
“There is a view that weaker data will lead to further policy stimulus, which has driven some of the rise in equity markets,” William Jackson, an economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in London, said by phone. “The ruble rally was built on very shaky foundations. If we see oil prices fall back, we could see the ruble decline once again.”
The Shanghai Composite Index gained 2.2 percent to the highest level since 2008, driving its 14-day relative strength index to 83.2, above the threshold of 70 that indicates to some technical analysts a security has climbed too much. The FTSE China A50 Index futures slid 4.9 percent. The China Securities Regulatory Commission will expand the stocks available for short selling, according to a CSRC microblog.
Ruble Drops
A Bloomberg gauge tracking 20 emerging-market currencies climbed 0.2 percent to a seven-week high. The ruble weakened to 50.74 per dollar after reaching 4 1/2-month peaks this week following the world’s biggest appreciation globally in 2015. Oil, Russia’s main export earner, advanced 10 percent in London this week, on course for the best performance since 2009. Brent crude declined 0.6 percent to $63.60 a barrel on Friday.
Concerned the gains will erode Russia’s competitiveness and further restrain an economy heading for recession, Credit Suisse Group AG, TKB BNP Paribas, and Sberbank CIB said this week that policy makers should start buying foreign currency if the ruble appreciates further.
The dollar-denominated RTS Index lost 1.8 percent as Sberbank retreated 2.1 percent in Moscow. Shares in India declined 0.8 percent, while equity gauges in the Czech Republic and Hungary lost at least 1.1 percent.
Getting Expensive
As the ruble fell, currencies in Malaysia and South Africa gained at least 0.7 percent against the dollar. The ringgit headed for a fourth weekly gain, the longest stretch of increases since July, while South Korea’s won was poised for a fifth weekly advance.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has risen 10 percent this year, including an 7.9 percent advance in April that drove the 14-day relative strength above 70 for the past eight days.
Six out of 10 industry groups in the measure rose, led by industrial shares. CSR and CNR, which are in the process of merging, jumped to records. They have both surged 61 percent this week.
Economists are predicting more cuts in interest rates after data this week showed China’s economy expanded 7 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, the slowest pace in six years. Industrial production in March missed the lowest forecast in Bloomberg’s survey of 40 economists.
The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreased 1.3 percent. Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical Group Co. soared to record on a plan to sell shares. Hang Seng Index futures declined 2.2 percent.
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