Azernews.Az

By Bloomberg

The nuclear negotiations between world powers and Iran may need to be extended for a third time because the chances of reaching a final agreement by the June 30 deadline seem increasingly remote.

Ever since the nuclear negotiators announced on April 2 in Switzerland that they’d hammered out a political framework, U.S and Iranian officials have been sparring over its terms. They’ve drawn different red lines and offered dueling fact sheets about the details that must be settled to produce a deal that confines Iran’s nuclear work to civilian purposes.

“It’s more likely than not that they’ll get a deal,” said Martin Indyk, executive vice president of the Brookings Institution, who speaks often with administration officials. “I suspect it won’t be by that June 30th deadline -- it’ll drag, but eventually there will be a deal.”

Oil on Friday capped the longest stretch of weekly gains since February 2014 as the public dispute about the framework’s terms raised questions about when Iran might be able to boost oil exports.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country’s ultimate authority, signaled the possibility of an extension in his comments on April 9, in which he also criticized U.S. officials’ descriptions of the framework.

The three-month window to wrap up negotiations “is not an unchangeable matter,” Khamenei said. “If this period increases, it’s not a problem at all.”

The idea of extending the talks given the “very difficult task” was reinforced the next day by Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, one of Iran’s negotiators.

Creating Problems

“Iran will work hard to reach an agreement within the specified time of three months or even sooner, but if the deal would not meet the criteria the leader has introduced for a good deal, we would extend the time,” he said on Iranian television, according to the Mehr news agency.

Any holdup would delay the economic benefits from the easing of the nation’s economic isolation and rising oil revenues that Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has promised his citizens.

A delay also would create problems for President Barack Obama, who’s pressed Congress to delay imposing more sanctions on Iran until the June 30 deadline passes without a deal. After that date, it will be harder for him to restrain Congress, where Republicans may be able to rally enough Democrats to line up a veto-proof majority backing additional sanctions.

Iranian Trap?

By suggesting that the negotiations may have to be extended again -- and possibly directing his negotiators to ensure that they need to be -- Khamenei might be trying to set a trap, and perhaps two, said a U.S. official who’s been monitoring the process and asked for anonymity to discuss diplomatic matters.

The first and most obvious, said the official, is using the June 30 deadline to pressure the world powers to make additional concessions on key issues, such as the timing of sanctions relief and the breadth of inspections of Iranian facilities. Forcing a delay also might sow divisions within the group composed of China, France, Germany, Russia, the U.K, and the U.S., the official said.

Failing to complete a final agreement by June 30 also might allow Iran to walk out of the talks and blame the other side if Congress or the European Union moves to expand or extend the economic sanctions, said the official. Iran’s supreme leader may have further paved the way for such an outcome by suggesting publicly that the U.S. cannot be trusted and is seeking to overthrow the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the official said.

Secretary of State John Kerry said Sunday that discrepancies between the U.S. and Iran on the precise terms of a preliminary nuclear deal are partly a matter of political “spin.” Kerry plans to brief Congress on Monday and Tuesday about details of the deal as lawmakers return to Washington from a two-week Easter recess.

Political Decisions

The EU suspended some sanctions on Jan. 20, 2014, after Iran and the world powers agreed on the interim Joint Plan of Action, and extended the suspension until Nov. 25. If no final agreement is reached by then, there will be moves in the EU to reimpose the sanctions that were lifted, which cover insurance, reinsurance and transport of Iranian crude; imports of Iranian petrochemicals; and trade in gold and precious metals, according to the law firm Steptoe & Johnson LLP.

The framework announced in Lausanne, Switzerland, was supposed to leave only “technical” elements to be resolved for a final deal. But the public differences go to crucial substantive issues, such as the timing of lifting sanctions on Iran and access for inspectors to military facilities, that will require top-level political decisions.

Khamenei and Obama “appear to be talking about two separate agreements and, unfortunately, I can’t say I’m surprised,” Senator Lindsey Graham, a South Carolina Republican critical of the talks so far, said Friday in a statement. The Obama administration “has been trying to sell a deal which may not actually exist.”

Sanctions Bill

The Senate Banking Committee in January approved sanctions legislation known as the Nuclear Weapon Free Iran Act of 2015, sponsored by Republican Senator Mark Kirk of Illinois, and Senate Republican leaders could bring it up for a vote anytime.

“As each new day reveals a new disagreement, it’s increasingly clear that Iran, in fact, failed to reach agreement with the United States and its partners on a political framework that addresses all parameters of a comprehensive agreement,” Kirk said. “At best, Iran agreed to disagree with the United States on key nuclear weapons-related issues and to continue talks.”

The White House has made clear its opposition to Congress moving on sanctions as long as there is the prospect of concluding a deal.

“We’re concerned about any sort of legislative action that might unilaterally impose additional sanctions on Iran, because that international unity that’s been so effective in pressuring Iran would fracture at that point,” White House spokesman Josh Earnest said April 8.