China stocks gain, aussie falls as trade data boosts easing case
By Bloomberg
China’s benchmark stock index rose to a seven-year high and the yuan weakened after a surprise drop in exports fueled speculation of more monetary stimulus. The Australian dollar led a retreat in commodity currencies and wheat fell.
The Shanghai Composite Index added 1.5 percent and Hong Kong’s gauge of Chinese companies, so-called H shares, rose 2.3 percent after data showed a 15 percent slump in the dollar value of shipments. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.1 percent by 1:07 p.m. in Tokyo, while Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures lost 0.1 percent. The Aussie dropped 1.2 percent, while the currencies of New Zealand, Canada and South Africa also fell. Wheat futures slid 1.6 percent.
Chinese imports also slumped, underscoring an economic slowdown that’s led to calls in state media for further policies to bolster growth. Hong Kong shares led gains last week that saw the value of global equities top $70 trillion for the first time as global central-bank stimulus and improving economic data reinforced the case for buying stocks.
“What we saw last week is likely to continue and we should see a period of outperforming China H” shares, Nader Naeimi, who helps manage about $118 billion as Sydney-based head of dynamic asset allocation at AMP Capital Investors Ltd., said on Bloomberg Television. “Some rotation out of Europe into Asia and emerging markets wouldn’t be a surprise this quarter.”
The Hang Seng Index rose 0.9 percent after jumping 7.9 percent in the five days through Friday, its biggest weekly gain since 2011. The Shanghai Composite has more than doubled in the last 14 months and trades at 15.7 times estimated earnings versus 9.6 times for the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index in Hong Kong.
‘Room to Run’
“Until P/E reaches to 15-16 times, China H shares have room to run,” said AMP’s Nader.
The S&P/ASX 200 Index was little changed in Sydney, erasing earlier gains as China’s imports fell 12.7 percent, slashing the trade surplus to a little more than $3 billion versus an estimate for $40 billion.
The Aussie bought 75.88 U.S. cents, while the kiwi retreated 1 percent to 74.58 cents. The rand fell 0.4 percent and the Canadian dollar weakened 0.4 percent to C$1.2620. China’s currency slipped 0.1 percent in offshore trade.
The plunge in commodity currencies buoyed the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which climbed 0.3 percent after capping its first weekly increase in three weeks. The yen weakened 0.2 percent and the euro slipped below $1.06.
Kospi, Topix
The Bloomberg Commodity Index dropped 0.2 percent. Gold for immediate delivery fell 0.3 percent.
The Kospi index in Seoul climbed 0.1 percent. Japan’s Topix index fell with the Nikkei 225 Stock Average, which briefly traded above 20,000 points on Friday for the first time since 2000.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Intel Corp. are among S&P 500 members reporting results this week, after analysts cut estimates amid the strong dollar and falling oil.
Wheat for July delivery retreated as much as 1.9 percent to $5.14 1/4 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade amid reports of showers in the U.S. grain belt. Corn was 0.5 percent lower.
“We’ve seen better rainfall over the last week or so in some key areas,” ANZ analyst Paul Deane, said by phone on Monday. “We’re seeing some of the risk coming out of the market.”
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