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Dollar strengthens versus euro as market sets aside divided Fed

9 April 2015 17:19 (UTC+04:00)
Dollar strengthens versus euro as market sets aside divided Fed

By Bloomberg

The dollar rose for a fourth day versus the euro as minutes of the Federal Reserve’s last policy meeting suggested the first interest-rate increase since 2006 is still on the table for this year.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed, having gained 20 percent in the past three quarters. Fed officials who pushed to lift benchmark rates in June were countered by others saying a stronger dollar would combine with declines in energy prices to curb inflation, minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s March 17-18 meeting showed.

“Nothing in the minutes has changed our view that the market should go long the dollar,” Jeremy Stretch, head of currency strategy at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce in London, said, referring to bets that an asset’s price will rise. “We think U.S. interest rates will rise this year. The policy divergence story between the Fed and its peers remains a reason to buy the dollar at this point.”

The dollar strengthened 0.2 percent to $1.0764 per euro as of 8:33 a.m. New York time, having risen by as much as 0.5 percent. The U.S. currency fell 0.1 percent to 120.04 yen. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the U.S. currency against 10 major peers, was at 1,193.06.

The U.S. currency gained 21 percent in the past 12 months, the best performer among 10 developed-nation currencies, according to Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The Swiss franc rose 8.6 percent, while the euro dropped 8.5 percent.

Jobs Data

The Fed minutes didn’t identify the participants or give precise numbers of those holding a certain view as the central bank moves toward the first rate increase in almost nine years. The discussion occurred before the release of disappointing jobs growth figures for March.

“Several participants judged that the economic data and outlook were likely to warrant beginning normalization at the June meeting,” according to minutes of the FOMC meeting released Wednesday in Washington.

“We’re of the view that the Fed is still on track for a June lift-off,” said Sue Trinh, senior currency strategist at Royal Bank of Canada in Hong Kong. “If we’re right, that would suggest that we continue to buy U.S. dollar dips, and that remains our bias.”

While others argued for later in the year, a couple of policy makers said the economy probably wouldn’t be ready for tighter policy until 2016.

Fed Comments

Fed Governor Jerome Powell said Wednesday that hidden slack in the labor market justifies a gradual approach to tightening. Fed Bank of New York President William C. Dudley said the central bank should err on the side of waiting too long as it considers when to raise interest rates for the first time in almost a decade.

Employers added 126,000 jobs in March, a report showed last week, breaking a year-long streak of monthly gains exceeding 200,000, the longest such stretch since 1995.

“We agree that a June hike is unlikely, but with rates markets still not even fully pricing a September hike and priced for less than two tightenings this year, we think there is scope for the dollar to regain more yield support if the data improves as we expect it will,” BNP Paribas SA analysts, including London-based global head of foreign-exchange strategy Steven Saywell, wrote in a report.

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