Dollar rally regaining strength as market sets aside divided Fed
By Bloomberg
The dollar advanced against its major peers as investors set aside concern that U.S. interest-rate increases may be delayed by divisions at the Federal Reserve.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index stalled this month amid a rash of weaker-than-forecast economic reports, after rising 20 percent in the past three quarters. Those pushing to lift benchmark borrowing costs in June were countered by others saying energy-price declines and a stronger dollar would continue to curb inflation. While reports will show U.S. jobless claims rose last week, retail sales for March are set to recover, according to Bloomberg surveys before reports Thursday and April 14 respectively.
Prior to the release of the Federal Open Market Committee minutes, “the U.S. dollar was under pressure, and considering how dovish the actual FOMC statement was, the fact that the minutes said that the committee was split on a June rate rise gave it a more hawkish tone,” said Sue Trinh, senior currency strategist at Royal Bank of Canada in Hong Kong. “We’re of the view that the Fed is still on track for a June liftoff. If we’re right, that would suggest that we continue to buy U.S. dollar dips, and that remains our bias.”
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the U.S. currency against 10 major peers, rose 0.1 percent to 1,193.30 as of 12:42 p.m. Tokyo time. The greenback advanced 0.2 percent to 120.33 yen and was little changed at $1.0778 per euro.
Jobs Growth
The minutes don’t identify the participants or give precise numbers of those holding a certain view as the Fed moves toward the first rate increase in almost nine years. The discussion occurred before the release of disappointing jobs growth figures for March.
“Several participants judged that the economic data and outlook were likely to warrant beginning normalization at the June meeting,” according to minutes of the March 17-18 FOMC meeting released Wednesday in Washington.
While others argued for later in the year, a couple of policy makers said the economy probably wouldn’t be ready for tighter policy until 2016.
Fed Governor Jerome Powell said Wednesday that hidden slack in the labor market justifies a gradual approach to tightening. Fed Bank of New York President William C. Dudley said the central bank should err on the side of waiting too long as it considers when to raise interest rates for the first time in almost a decade.
Employers added 126,000 jobs in March, a report showed last week, breaking a yearlong streak of monthly gains exceeding 200,000, the longest such stretch since 1995.
“In order for June to truly be on the table, we need to see a substantial revision to Friday’s report and well above 250,000 for the next two employment releases,” said Jennifer Vail, head of fixed-income research in Portland, Oregon, at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, which manages $126 billion. “The second quarter is going to be a high volatility period for the dollar.”
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