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Dollar declines for fourth day as weak data cloud Fed outlook

6 April 2015 11:27 (UTC+04:00)
Dollar declines for fourth day as weak data cloud Fed outlook

By Bloomberg

The dollar fell, following three weeks of losses, as weakness in U.S. economic data clouded the outlook for higher interest rates.

An index of the greenback against major peers extended declines to a fourth day, set for the longest losing streak in nine months, after a report Friday showed American employers added fewer workers in March than in any other month since December 2013, muddying a bright spot in the U.S. recovery. Hedge funds and other large speculators pared bullish bets on the greenback to the least since December. The Aussie slid to within a 10th of a cent of parity with the New Zealand dollar.

“Nonfarm payrolls fell short of market expectations by a long way,” Toshiya Yamauchi, a senior analyst in Tokyo at Ueda Harlow Ltd., a margin-trading-services provider, wrote in a note to clients. “Sentiment for dollar selling is set to continue.”

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the U.S. currency against 10 major peers, lost 0.1 percent to 1,181.66 as of 9:08 a.m. in Tokyo from Friday.

The greenback slid 0.4 percent to $1.1009 per euro, and declined 0.1 percent to 118.87 yen.

The difference in the number of wagers on dollar gains compared with those on declines -- or net longs -- fell by 45,730 contracts to 366,640 in the week to March 31, according to data from the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission. That was the least since the period ended Dec. 16.

The Australian dollar declined 0.2 percent to NZ$1.0043, after earlier touching, NZ$1.0007, the lowest since the two currencies were freely floated in the 1980s.


Economic Outlook


The Federal Reserve is weighing data for signs the U.S. economy can weather higher borrowing costs as global growth stalls. Economic reports have lagged analyst forecasts since early January, with policy makers noting after their latest meeting that “growth has moderated somewhat.” The central bank releases meeting minutes on April 8.

The Labor Department said Friday U.S. companies added 126,000 jobs in March, almost half the 245,000 median estimate of 98 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

“It’s pretty shocking,” said John Vail, the chief global strategist at Nikko Asset Management Co., which oversees $160 billion globally. “This report obviously does push out expectations for a Fed hike to some degree, although we all know that the data can change very rapidly.”

The rate for fed funds futures for December fell four basis points to 0.34 percent, indicating about one-in-three odds of a rate increase by the Fed’s meeting that month.

Policy makers will still increase rates in August or September, according to Bill Gross, who runs the $1.5 billion Janus Global Unconstrained Bond Fund.

“They want to get off zero, if only to prove that they don’t have to stay at zero for a long, long time,” he said after the payrolls release.

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