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By Bloomberg

Treasuries tend to rally in the month of April.

U.S. government securities have advanced in the period every year from 2010 to 2014, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

One theory for the gain is that Japanese investors begin their fiscal year on April 1. Even though it’s April Fool’s Day, the five-year run is no gimmick. Kei Katayama at Daiwa SB Investments in Tokyo said it’s driven by higher yields than those available in Japan.

“Before the end of March or in the first few weeks of April, the new positions are set,” said Katayama, a senior fund manager at the company, which has the equivalent of $40.8 billion in assets. “For the first few weeks of April, there may be buying pressure” in Treasuries, he said.

The benchmark U.S. 10-year yield fell one basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, to 1.91 percent as of 7:39 a.m. in New York, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader data. The price of the 2 percent note due in February 2025 rose 1/8, or $1.25 per $1,000 face amount, to 100 25/32.

Treasuries have fooled analysts already this year, with the 10-year yield falling 25 basis points in the first quarter. The average forecast from economists surveyed by Bloomberg at the end of 2014 was for an increase to 2.55 percent.

ADP Report

Katayama said he’ll be reluctant to bet against Treasuries for the next few weeks.

Yields fluctuated Wednesday before reports this week that may strengthen the case for raising U.S. interest rates.

Roseland, New Jersey-based ADP Research Institute releases a report Wednesday that economists surveyed by Bloomberg said will show companies added 225,000 jobs in March, after a 212,000 increase the month before. In two day’s time, data from the Labor Department will show the world’s largest economy added 245,000 jobs last month, according to a separate survey.

“If it’s a strong report, you would expect that yields will go up,” said Piet Lammens, head of research at KBC Bank NV in Brussels, referring to the Friday payrolls data. While the Fed is dovish, Treasuries “are not completely immune to the strong data. There may be a few more months of subdued yields and then we hope the economy shows stronger signs again” and rates rise, he said.

BOJ Buying

Japanese investors have been drawn by 10-year Treasuries that yielded about 1.53 percentage point more than similar- maturity bonds at home. The spread is less than the average over the past decade of about 2 percentage points, reflecting demand for the U.S. securities.

Japan has built a stake of $1.2386 trillion of U.S. debt, pulling within $1 billion of China as America’s largest foreign creditor, Treasury Department data show.

Yields on Japanese bonds due in five years and less are close to zero, driven down as the central bank buys debt and other assets to pump money into the economy as it seeks to spur growth.

BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will probably increase the amount by the end of the second quarter, HSBC Holdings Plc said in a report Wednesday.

“Here comes the money train,” Frederic Neumann and Izumi Devalier in Hong Kong and Rupali Sarkar in Bangalore said in the report. “Japanese investors’ great rotation out of JGBs is set to continue for the foreseeable future.”