Euro falls as Goldman Sachs bear call underscores record shorts
By Bloomberg
The euro fell, halting a two-week rally against the dollar, as Greece’s funding concerns and the European Central Bank’s aggressive monetary easing contrast with the Federal Reserve’s path toward higher interest rates.
The shared currency has slid against 14 of its 16 major peers this year as the ECB carries out an unprecedented plan to buy 1.1 trillion euros ($1.2 trillion) of bonds to support the economy and stave off deflation. Speculators placed record bets on declines in the euro with the currency dropping for an unprecedented ninth month as Greece strives to persuade creditors to accept proposed reforms and release further aid.
“The euro’s rebound is nothing more than adjustments as it remains pressured by lingering uncertainty over Greece and the ECB’s strong easing stance,” said Kengo Suzuki, chief currency strategist at Mizuho Securities Co. in Tokyo. “It is likely to drift lower toward $1.05.”
The euro depreciated 0.2 percent $1.0871 as of 12:26 p.m. in Tokyo, after completing a two-week gain on March 27 and trading below 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages. It was little changed at 129.64 yen.
Hedge funds and other large speculators pushed net bearish positions on the euro to a record-high in the week to March 24. They rose to 220,963 contracts, up from 193,774 in the previous period, according to data from the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Greece’s Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras will update lawmakers Monday on talks held over the weekend in Brussels between Greek government officials and representatives of the country’s creditors to secure more funds from the euro area and stave off fiscal collapse.
Diverging Policies
“We continue to expect the EUR to weaken vs the USD over the coming quarters, due to both US cyclical strength and continued QE-driven portfolio rebalancing outflows from the Euro area,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. wrote in a research note to clients on March 27. “As the Fed continues to dismantle forward guidance, the ECB has moved in the opposite direction.”
After the Fed tempered market expectations for a mid-year interest-rate increase earlier this month, sending the dollar to its biggest weekly decline since 2011, traders refocused on the direction of monetary tightening the U.S. central bank is pursuing, while other monetary authorities globally eased.
Fed Chair Janet Yellen said Friday she expects rates to rise this year. ECB President Mario Draghi said last week he’s confident Europe’s bond-buying program will hit its targets in the first month of operation.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index advanced 0.2 percent to 1,193.10, pushing its climb this year to 5.5 percent. The nine months of gains would extend what is already the longest monthly streak in data going back to 2004.
‘Bull Market’
“The USD is in a cyclical bull market,” Sam Tuck, a currency strategist, wrote in an ANZ Bank New Zealand Ltd., wrote in a report to clients dated March 30. “Markets have converged on June/September as the timing of the first hike and USD will continue to rally into this move.”
Currencies in Australia and New Zealand fell after sliding commodity prices damped the outlook for the nations’ exports.
The Aussie dropped 0.3 percent to 77.29 U.S. cents, heading for a five-day decline. The kiwi weakened 0.3 percent to 75.42 U.S. cents, set for a four-day loss.
The Bloomberg Commodity Index fell 0.3 percent after sliding 1.7 percent Friday, its biggest drop since Feb. 4.
Currency moves were also exacerbated before Japan’s fiscal year ends on March 31, said Yuji Saito, director of foreign exchange at Credit Agricole SA in Tokyo.
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