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By Bloomberg

European shares fell with U.S. equity-index futures after German investor confidence rose less than forecast. The euro strengthened on speculation that weaker U.S. economic data mean the Federal Reserve won’t rush to increase interest rates, while oil declined for a sixth day in New York.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slipped 0.6 percent at 6:35 a.m. in New York. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures dropped 0.3 percent. The 19-nation shared currency advanced 0.4 percent to $1.0608 and a bond-market gauge of the U.S. inflation outlook fell to a six-week low. Chinese shares rose to the highest since 2008 and the yuan jumped the most in a month in offshore trading. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slipped 0.5 percent and Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures dropped 0.3 percent. U.S. oil fell as much as 2.1 percent $42.98 a barrel.

The Fed begins a two-day meeting today with a Bloomberg measure of economic surprises at its lowest since 2009 after gauges of producer prices, factory output and consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell. Stocks fell in Europe after the ZEW Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim said its index of investor and analyst expectations rose to 54.8, less than the estimate of 59.4 in a Bloomberg survey.

“Investors got back into their everything-bad-is-good groove” after the factory reports and below-forecast data on housing, Tony Farnham, an analyst in Sydney at Patersons Securities Ltd., wrote in an e-mail to clients. “There is still a general expectation that the Fed will remove the word ‘patient’ from its April rates decision commentary. This would deliver the Fed increased flexibility on the rates front.”

Shanghai Shares

Futures trading shows an 18 percent chance the Fed will raise its benchmark rate to at least 0.5 percent by June, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s down from 20 percent odds on Friday. The Bloomberg ECO U.S. Surprise Index, which measures whether data beat or missed forecasts, dropped to the lowest level since 2009.

While U.S. 10-year Treasury notes were little changed, with the yield at 2.06 percent, the 10-year break-even rate, a market gauge of inflation expectations for the next decade, narrowed for a ninth-straight day. It reached 1.65 percentage points, the lowest since Feb. 3.

In Europe, Antofagasta Plc slid 2.6 percent after the miner reported full-year earnings and sales that missed estimates. Bpost SA lost 1.5 percent after giving a profit forecast that trailed analysts’ estimates.

S&P 500 E-mini futures expiring in June were little changed after the index posted its biggest rally since Feb. 3. Housing starts probably slipped 2.4 percent in February, while building permits rose, economists forecast.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index added 0.8 percent. Samsung Electronics Co. led South Korea’s Kospi index to its steepest gain in 20 months. A gauge of 20 developing-nation currencies advanced for a second day, rising 0.2 percent.

The Shanghai Composite Index gained 1.6 percent on speculation monetary stimulus will revive the economy. China’s one-year rate swap slid eight basis points to 3.68 percent after the central bank cut the yield on seven-day reverse repos in a further sign of monetary easing. The yuan rose 0.34 percent to 6.2544 per dollar in offshore trading, narrowing its discount to the onshore rate to a one-month low.

Russia’s dollar-denominated RTS Index of stocks climbed 1.5 percent and ruble led gains in currencies, strengthening 1 percent.

Turkey’s benchmark equity gauge rose 0.9 percent and the lira advanced 0.2 percent while the yield on the 10-year bonds fell nine basis points to 9.46 percent. The central bank, which has been under government pressure to lower borrowing costs, will probably keep rates on hold, according to all but four of the 19 economists in a Bloomberg survey. The remainder predict a quarter-point cut.

Indonesia’s rupiah stayed higher, gaining 0.5 percent, after policy makers left rates unchanged in line with forecasts.

The euro’s advance extended a 0.7 percent gain on Monday. Before rallying, it dropped as low as $1.0458 that day, the weakest level since 2003. The currency stayed higher after a report showed Germany investor confidence rose less than analysts estimated.

Norway’s krone declined against all of its 16 major peers, reaching the weakest level since 2002 against the dollar, as crude oil prices declined and before a meeting of central bank policy makers this week. The currency reached 8.3277 per dollar. It has weakened 28 percent in the past 12 months, the worst performance among major currencies.

West Texas Intermediate crude slid 1.2 percent to $43.35 a barrel after plunging 12 percent over the previous five days. Brent crude retreated 0.8 percent to $53.52 a barrel after three days of declines.

U.S. crude inventories have been increasing at their highest level since at least 1982, according to data from the Energy Information Administration, reigniting concern over a global glut that sparked last year’s 46 percent slide in WTI. Oil stockpiles in Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for New York futures, have reached about 70 percent of working storage capacity. The International Energy Agency has also raised its forecasts for U.S. production.

Crude stockpiles probably gained by 3.3 million barrels to 452.2 million last week, a Bloomberg News survey showed before an Energy Information Administration report on Wednesday.

While U.S. 10-year Treasury notes were little changed, with the yield at 2.06 percent, the 10-year break-even rate, a market gauge of inflation expectations for the next decade, narrowed for a ninth straight day. It reached 1.65 percentage points, the lowest since Feb. 3.

Ten-year gilts rose for a fourth day, pushing the 10-year yield two basis points lower to 1.65 percent.