Dollar jumps versus euro to pierce level forecast for year-end
By Bloomberg
The dollar climbed to an 11-year high against the euro before a U.S. jobs report that may back arguments for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in 2015 while the European Central Bank is preparing to buy bonds.
The euro’s seven-day slide pushed it below $1.10, which is the median of strategists’ predictions for the year-end compiled by Bloomberg. The analysts have already cut their forecasts almost 7 percent since Dec. 31. Friday’s report will show increases in nonfarm payrolls stayed above 200,000 for a 12th month, economists said in a Bloomberg News survey. ECB President Mario Draghi set March 9 as the start date for a plan to buy 1.1 trillion euro ($1.2 trillion) of debt.
“The interest-rate differential will play out in favor of the dollar, and euro-dollar will continue to move lower,” said Niels Christensen, chief currency strategist at Nordea Bank AB in Copenhagen. “Everything is in place for a lower euro” which may slide to $1.05 by the end of 2015, he said.
The dollar climbed 0.5 percent to $1.0972 per euro as of 9:59 a.m. London time, pushing its gain this week to 2 percent, the biggest since the five days through Jan. 23. It earlier reached $1.0965, the strongest level since September 2003. The 19-nation currency fell 0.6 percent to 131.67 yen, bringing this week’s decline to 1.7 percent.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the currency against 10 major counterparts, rose 0.1 percent to 1,186.82, set for its highest close in data going back to 2004.
235,000 Jobs
A stronger U.S. labor market may give the Fed room to raise rates this year after having kept them between zero and 0.25 percent since 2008. Employers added 235,000 jobs last month, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
“Markets are pricing in a rise in nonfarm payrolls of 200,000-250,000, and if the figure is within that range, the dollar could easily rise above 120.50 yen,” said Kazuo Shirai, a Los Angeles-based trader at MUFG Union Bank NA. “It will then depend on how markets see the chance of a June rate hike.”
The yen was little changed at 120.09 per dollar, down 0.4 percent in the week.
The ECB debt purchases will total 60 billion euros each month and run through at least September 2016, Draghi told reporters in Nicosia, Cyprus, after a policy meeting on Thursday. He said the central bank may buy bonds with yields as low as the deposit rate, which was cut to minus 0.20 percent in September. The ECB kept the main refinancing rate at a record- low 0.05 percent.
The euro will probably weaken to parity with the dollar early next year, said Vassili Serebriakov, a New York-based foreign-exchange strategist at BNP Paribas SA. The currencies last traded on a one-for-one basis in December 2002.
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