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Euro-area growth helped by consumers, trade as outlook improves

6 March 2015 16:53 (UTC+04:00)
Euro-area growth helped by consumers, trade as outlook improves

By Bloomberg

Stronger growth in the euro-area economy at the end of last year was driven by private consumption and foreign trade.

Gross domestic product rose 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter after expanding 0.2 percent in the previous three months, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said Friday, confirming a Feb. 13 estimate. Household consumption and investment increased 0.4 percent each, while exports were up 0.8 percent.

The currency bloc’s economy is making progress in overcoming its longest-ever slump, with European Central Bank stimulus set to spur the fastest growth since 2007 and a return of inflation to the ECB’s goal within three years. ECB President Mario Draghi has claimed victory for his 1.1 trillion-euro ($1.2 trillion) quantitative-easing program that will commence Monday.

“Business and consumer confidence are improving and the transmission mechanism of monetary policy is firming,” Philip Marey and Bas van Geffen, economists at Rabobank in Utrecht, Netherlands, said in a client note. “This will ultimately contribute to a further improvement in the economic outlook.”

Household consumption added 0.2 percentage point to economic growth in the fourth quarter, investment contributed 0.1 percentage point and exports bolstered output by 0.4 percentage point, according to the report. Imports and inventory changes subtracted 0.2 percentage point each.

Strengthening Gradually

Economic sentiment in the euro area rose to a seven-month high in February, unemployment fell to its lowest since April 2012 in January -- albeit still a hefty 11.2 percent -- and a contraction in bank lending to companies and households has almost halted.

“The latest economic data and, particularly, survey evidence available up to February point to some further improvements in economic activity at the beginning of this year,” Draghi said Thursday. “Looking ahead, we expect the economic recovery to broaden and strengthen gradually.”

Risks surrounding the economic outlook remain on the downside but have diminished after the announcement of large- scale asset purchases and a decline in oil prices, he said.

The ECB lifted its growth forecast for this year to 1.5 percent from 1 percent, for 2016 to 1.9 percent, and projected 2.1 percent in 2017. The economy hasn’t expanded faster than 2 percent since 2007. Consumer prices are projected to be flat over the whole of 2015, and inflation should average 1.5 percent next year and 1.8 percent in 2017. The ECB’s goal is just below 2 percent, a level not seen since early 2012.

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