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U.S. oil discount poised for record widening as supplies surge

27 February 2015 19:01 (UTC+04:00)
U.S. oil discount poised for record widening as supplies surge

By Bloomberg

U.S. crude’s discount to European prices headed for a record widening in dollar terms this month as prices at $50 a barrel failed to slow the nation’s fastest oil output in more than three decades.

West Texas Intermediate traded for $12.32 a barrel less than the North Sea benchmark, Brent, as supplies expand at the U.S. storage hub in Cushing, Oklahoma. The spread expanded by $7.57 a barrel this month. U.S. crude inventories grew to the highest level in weekly data that started August 1982, according to the Energy Information Administration. Brent headed for its biggest monthly gain since 2009.

“Rising Cushing stocks, which are approaching tank tops, are driving the spread,” Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at consultants Energy Aspects Ltd. in London, said by e-mail. “Inventories are filling fast.”

The widening discount of U.S. oil is helping the economy, with the average household forecast to save $750 in gasoline costs this year, according to the EIA. It will also boost U.S. refiners, who have access to cheaper feedstocks than processors internationally.

WTI Move

WTI for April delivery advanced as much as $1.36, or 2.8 percent, to $49.53 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and traded at $49.14 at 1:07 p.m. London time. The grade has lost 2.4 percent this week, curbing its gain in February to 1.9 percent. The contract fell 5.5 percent to $48.17 on Thursday, the lowest close since Jan. 29.

Brent for April settlement gained as much as $1.70 to $61.75 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The contract slid $1.58 to $60.05 on Thursday. Prices have climbed 16 percent in February, the biggest monthly advance since May 2009.

The spread between the two grades widened to as much as $12.34 a barrel, the biggest gap since January 2014. A monthly swing of about $7.57 compares with a move of about $7.20 in October 2011, the previous record divergence, according to exchange data compiled by Bloomberg.

U.S. crude stockpiles increased for a seventh week through Feb. 20 and now stand at 434 million barrels, the highest in Energy Information Administration data that begin in 1982. Drillers in the U.S. cut the number of rigs in service to 1,019 last week, the smallest level since July 2011, according to data from Baker Hughes Inc.

The U.S. oil boom has been driven by a combination of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, which has unlocked shale formations from Texas to North Dakota. Production rose to 9.29 million barrels a day in the week to Feb. 20, the highest in weekly estimates from the Energy Department’s statistical arm since January 1983.

Saudi Comments

Oil advanced this week as Saudi Arabia, the biggest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, signaled that the global market is stabilizing amid improving demand. The market has turned “calm,” Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said on Wednesday. OPEC supplies about 40 percent of the world’s oil.

Oil as low as $45 a barrel is unsustainable, Fatih Birol, the chief economist for the International Energy Agency, said at a conference in London Thursday. Investment cuts in the U.S., Russia and Brazil will curtail output growth, bringing supply and demand back in line, he said.

WTI may drop next week, a Bloomberg News survey showed. Seventeen of 34 analysts and traders, or 50 percent, forecast crude will drop through March 6, while nine predict an increase and eight see prices little changed.

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