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By Bloomberg

Ford Motor Co. is helping to pull aluminum from the bear markets afflicting most commodities by adding to an increase in industrial use.

The company is hiring workers to expand production of its F-150 pickup after a switch to an aluminum body helped spur demand that has exceeded the company’s plans. As auto use increases, U.S. consumption of the metal will rise about 7 percent in 2015 from 2014 to 5.38 million tons, the highest since 2006, according to Morgan Stanley.

Even as the Bloomberg Commodity Index trades near a 12-year low, aluminum prices are up almost 2 percent in the past 12 months, the biggest gain behind cattle. Ford’s move to go with the lightweight metal that helps to improve fuel mileage is a “line in the sand” for carmakers, Michelle Krebs, senior analyst at AutoTrader.com., said last month after the F-150 took the North American Truck of the Year award.

“The demand profile for aluminum is positive, for sure, and that’s from the light-weighting trends in the auto sector,” David Wilson, an analyst at Citigroup Inc. in London, said in a telephone interview. “There’s longer-term pressure on auto companies to reduce car fuel consumption, and I suspect we’ll continue to see those trends in light-weighting.”

Aluminum for delivery in three months slid 2.5 percent in 2015 to $1,806 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange, the smallest drop among the six main commodities traded on the LME. Cash prices, which settled Thursday at $1,791.25, will climb 16 percent this year to an average $2,072, Morgan Stanley analysts said in a Feb. 23 report. The bank in January correctly forecast a rebound for copper, which is heading for the biggest monthly gain since September 2012.

Goldman View

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is bullish in the “medium-term,” forecasting a gain to $1,950 next year, from $1,788 in 2015, analysts said in a Jan. 23 note.

The F-150 is the largest production ever of an aluminum- bodied vehicle, with the metal previously found mostly on luxury cars such as Jaguars. Replacing steel with aluminum means the pickup achieves as much as 26 miles (42 kilometers) per gallon on the highway, a 29 percent improvement from the older model. The F-series line is the the nation’s top-selling vehicle and accounts for about 90 percent of Dearborn, Michigan-based Ford’s global automotive profits, Morgan Stanley has estimated.

Honda Motor Co. is also using more of the lightweight metal to improve fuel mileage. As more carmakers follow suit, there will be a “tectonic shift” in demand from the auto industry for the metal, according to Sean Stack, an executive vice president and head of North America rolled products at Aleris Corp., a U.S. aluminum producer.

Cheap Gas

The collapse in oil prices cuts the appeal of shifting from cheaper steel to aluminum as lower gasoline costs mean consumers get less benefit from fuel efficiency. Average U.S. gasoline prices fell to $2.033 a gallon on Jan. 25, the lowest since March 2009, AAA data show. Crude futures in New York plunged 53 percent in the past year.

“There’s going to be less pressure to put aluminum on vehicles if oil prices stay lower, because current lower prices of gas will reduce pressure by customers,” Kevin Moore, president of All Raw Materials Consulting in Clarkston, Michigan, said in a telephone interview. “The real decider of vehicle purchase is the consumer.”

Even as gasoline costs drop, fuel mileage will remain a goal for carmakers. In September, President Barack Obama urged world leaders at a United Nations summit to reach a global agreement to combat climate change. The administration worked with automakers to agree on fuel-efficiency standards that will require an average of 54.5 miles per gallon for cars and light trucks in the U.S. by 2025.

Adding Workers

Morgan Stanley estimates U.S. aluminum demand will jump 28 percent by 2020 as carmakers continue the push to make lighter vehicles. Ford said this month that it’s adding 1,550 workers to help build the F-150 pickup in Missouri and Michigan.

“It’s only a matter of time until other auto companies move to light-weighting with aluminum,” Silverio Colalancia, recycling director at Novelis North America, said in an interview. “Everybody’s got binoculars, and they’re watching the F-150.”