Danone forecasts difficult market on deflation, emerging markets
By Bloomberg
Danone, the world’s biggest yogurt maker, joined European consumer-goods peers in forecasting no pickup in sales growth this year amid deflationary pressure in Europe and weakening currencies in emerging markets.
Sales will rise 4 percent to 5 percent on a like-for-like basis this year after a 4.7 percent gain in 2014, the Paris- based company said Friday in an e-mailed statement. The company said it expects “slight growth” in the operating margin on the same basis, which adjusts for currency changes, divestments and acquisitions.
“2014 was a year of political and economic turbulences, not to mention severe volatility -- a taste of what awaits us in the years ahead,” Chairman Franck Riboud said in the statement.
Danone’s outlook mirrors that of peers such as Unilever and Nestle SA, both of which have forecast little or no acceleration in growth this year, weighed down particularly by difficult conditions in China. Revenue at Danone’s fresh dairy-products business, which generates more than half its sales and has been hurt by a downturn in the European economy, advanced 1.5 percent last year, the slowest rate in more than a decade.
Trading operating income rose 3.7 percent on a like-for- like basis to 2.66 billion euros ($3 billion) in 2014. That compares with the 2.69 billion-euro median estimate compiled by Bloomberg. The company raised its dividend 3.4 percent to 1.50 euros per share.
‘Main Disappointment’
“The main disappointment is 2015 guidance,” Warren Ackerman, an analyst at Societe Generale, wrote in a note. “Dairy still remains very concerning with volumes actually getting worse in the fourth quarter despite the high level of pricing starting to come off.”
Fresh dairy-product volume declined 7.8 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with a 6.6 percent rate for the full- year.
Fourth-quarter baby-food sales rose 28 percent on a like- for-like basis, beating the 21 percent analyst estimate. Revenue rebounded from a drop in demand caused by a 2013 botulism scare in Asia that turned out to be a false alarm. Danone said sales of its Dumex brand, which faced bribery claims in China in 2013, still aren’t meeting its expectations.
In October, Danone agreed to pay HK$4.39 billion ($570 million) for a 25 percent stake in Yashili International Holdings Ltd. to gain a bigger share of China’s baby formula market, which Euromonitor International has forecast will more than double in the four years ending 2017.
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