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S&P 500 futures gain as treasuries fall with oil; ruble weakens

2 February 2015 15:01 (UTC+04:00)
S&P 500 futures gain as treasuries fall with oil; ruble weakens

By Bloomberg

U.S. equity-index futures climbed as Treasuries retreated with crude oil and Russia’s ruble. Asian stocks slumped toward the longest losing streak in four months as Chinese manufacturing gauges signaled contraction.

Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures were 0.3 percent higher by 8:17 a.m. in London and the U.S. 10-year bond yield rose three basis points after the biggest January decline in rates since 1988. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fluctuated and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.2 percent, led by Chinese shares. The ruble slid 1.6 percent and Switzerland’s franc weakened. U.S. oil dropped 2.5 percent amid speculation a refinery-worker strike will curb demand, while gold slipped 0.5 percent.

China’s official purchasing managers’ index unexpectedly fell below 50 for the first time since 2012, fueling speculation Asia’s largest economy will need to boost monetary stimulus as tax receipts slide. A private China factory report also came in lower than estimated, before similar gauges for India, Japan, the U.S. and Europe. Slower-than-forecast U.S. growth and deflation concerns amid plunging commodity prices are pressuring central banks to do more to safeguard a faltering recovery.

“Definitely the data will take a toll on investors’ sentiment,” Daphne Roth, Singapore-based head of Asian equity research at ABN Amro Private Banking, wrote in an e-mail today. “It doesn’t surprise us that there is some consolidation going on but it will also provide an opportunity for some investors. For China, the oil price and lower inflation will enable them to ease some of their policies or do a targeted stimulus in some area, as a result we are still positive on global growth.”

Growth Concern

The S&P 500 capped a 3.1 percent January retreat on Friday as GDP in the U.S. rose an annualized 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter, missing the 3 percent growth pitched by economists and falling from 5 percent in the three months through September. The euro-zone’s annual inflation rate fell to minus 0.6 percent, matching the biggest decline in prices in the history of the single currency, according to data published by Eurostat.

About half of the 19 industry groups on the Stoxx 600 retreated today. Julius Baer Group Ltd. jumped 7.7 percent after Switzerland’s third-largest wealth manager said it plans to cut costs by 100 million Swiss francs ($108 million).

Airlines led declines on Europe’s benchmark gauge after U.S. oil surged 8.3 percent, the most since 2012, on Friday. Ryanair Holdings Plc sipped 2.2 percent after the low-cost carrier lifted its full-year profit goal amid a jump in traffic and as lower fuel prices boosted its third-quarter figures.

The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 2.6 percent and a gauge of Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong retreated 1.2 percent. The Hang Seng Index lost 0.1 percent.

China PMI

China’s official Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 49.8 last month from 50.1 in December, missing the median estimate of 50.2 in a Bloomberg survey of analysts and below the 50 level separating expansion and contraction. A similar gauge from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics slipped to 49.7 from an interim reading of 49.8. The slide follows the biggest weekly Shanghai stock-market drop in a year and fiscal data that showed the weakest revenue growth since 1991.

China Minsheng Banking Corp., the country’s first privately owned bank, plunged as much as 10 percent in Hong Kong after President Mao Xiaofeng resigned amid media report that he is being investigated by Chinese authorities.

West Texas Intermediate crude fell to $47.19 a barrel, retracing some of Friday’s jump after Baker Hughes Inc. report a record number of rigs idled last week. WTI retreated to $44.45 a barrel last week, its lowest settlement since March 11, 2009. Brent dropped 2.7 percent to $51.57 a barrel in London.

Gas Strike

U.S. petroleum workers began their largest strike since 1980 on Sunday after failing to reach agreement on a labor contract. The action is spurring concern that U.S. crude processing will be curtailed. Gasoline futures for March delivery slipped 1.8 percent in early trading after surging 6.3 percent on Friday.

Exxon Mobil Corp., which will report earnings today, said operations at its Beaumont refinery are normal amid a rolling extension to the deadline for negotiations with the United Steelworkers union. Analysts estimate that GAAP net income for the largest U.S. energy company fell 31 percent to $5.7 billion in the fourth quarter.

The yuan slid 0.13 percent to 6.26 per dollar, and touched 2.2606 to trade at a record 1.95 percent discount to the central bank’s reference rate, near the limit of its trading band. The People’s Bank of China cut the reference rate by 0.02 percent to an eight-week low of 6.1385.

Yuan Options

Options contracts on the U.S. dollar versus the yuan were the most-traded of any currency pair today, with about $3.1 billion worth trading hands as of 4:15 p.m. in Hong Kong, according to data from the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation. The offshore yuan slid 0.3 percent to its weakest level in two years on Friday.

The benchmark U.S. 10-year note paid 1.67 percent today. The yield dropped 53 basis points last month to 1.64 percent in New York, the biggest decline in any January since 1988, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader prices. The 30-year bond yield reached an all-time low 2.22 percent Friday.

Yields on Australian government bonds maturing in three years fell as much as six basis points, or 0.06 percentage point, to an all-time low of 1.885 percent. Ten-year yields retreated as much as seven basis points to 2.38 percent, also a record, before erasing the decline.

The Australian dollar was up 0.3 percent to 77.81 cents today after sinking 1.9 percent last week, when it touched 77.20 U.S. cents, the weakest level since July 13, 2009.

RBA Cutting?

While traders of rate swaps are pricing in 63 percent odds of a reduction in key borrowing costs by the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday, 22 of 28 economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict no change this week. The RBA has been on hold for 17 months -- the longest period in almost two decades.

The 19-nation euro climbed 0.2 percent to $1.1313 today after new Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras promised to stick by the country’s financial obligations. French Finance Minister Michel Sapin said he wants to facilitate a new deal for Greece with its official creditors after hearing the country’s plans for economic revival.

Wheat dropped 0.2 percent, extending the biggest January decline in 40 years. Global stockpiles of grains, excluding rice, are heading for the highest level since the mid-1980s. Wheat futures in Chicago traded at $5.0175 a bushel after losing 15 percent last month.

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