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Worldwide bond rally comes to a halt as ECB boosts stimulus

23 January 2015 13:13 (UTC+04:00)
Worldwide bond rally comes to a halt as ECB boosts stimulus

By Bloomberg

A worldwide bond market rally came to a halt this week as policy makers led by the European Central Bank stepped up efforts to strengthen their economies.

The effective yield on the Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Broad Market Sovereign Plus Index climbed to 1.18 percent from the record low of 1.14 percent set Jan 19. Treasuries headed for their first weekly decline this month. Japanese bonds suffered their steepest one-day rout since May 2013 on Thursday in Tokyo.

“The rally was too rapid,” said Yoshiyuki Suzuki, head of fixed-income in Tokyo at Fukoku Mutual Life Insurance Co., which oversees the equivalent of $52.4 billion. “I don’t have a big fear for the worldwide economy. ‘‘At the same time, debt purchases by the ECB and the Bank of Japan will maintain demand for bonds, he said.

The U.S. 10-year yield was little changed at 1.86 percent at 12:34 p.m. in Tokyo, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader data. The price of the 2.25 percent note due in November 2024 was 103 1/2. The yield rose two basis points this week, climbing for the first time since the period ended Dec. 26.

Japan’s 10-year yield fell 5.5 basis points to 0.255 percent. The decline almost unwinds Thursday’s 6.5-basis-point surge. Australia’s was little changed at 2.59 percent.

The ECB will buy government bonds as part of an asset- purchase program worth about 1.1 trillion euros ($1.25 trillion), President Mario Draghi announced Thursday in Frankfurt.

European bonds rallied on the news. German 10-year yields headed for a seventh weekly decline, and five-year yields are almost zero. French 10-year yields slid to a record 0.59 percent.

Canada, Denmark

Canada and Denmark both cut interest rates this week. The Bank of Japan boosted a lending program and stuck to its plan to increase the monetary base at an annual pace of 80 trillion yen ($675 billion).

Kevin Chen, a debt trader at Capital Securities Corp. in Taipei, said he’s still betting on Treasuries.

‘‘Yields are still in a downward trend,” he said. “I’m bullish. In Germany, France, the U.K., they are not doing well.”

Treasuries stand to benefit because they offer more yield than European bonds, he said. U.S. 10-year notes pay about 141 basis points more than their German counterparts.

Demand for U.S. assets pushed the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index to its highest level today since the gauge’s inception in Dec. 31, 2004.

Loomis Sayles

Dan Fuss, who manages the Loomis Sayles Bond Fund, said it has become “harder” for the Federal Reserve to raise U.S. interest rates because higher yields would fuel the currency rally.

“More money comes into the dollar,” Fuss said Thursday in New York on Bloomberg Television. “Where are you taking the money from? Nearly every place else in the world. Who needs the money in their economy? Every place else in the world.”

Yields show the outlook for inflation is picking up. Investors anticipate global consumer prices will rise at an average pace of 1.15 percent a year, according to Bank of America data. The figure has risen from 0.99 earlier this month, which was the lowest level since 2010.

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