Emerging stocks drop amid global-growth concern as ruble slides
By Bloomberg
The lowering of the World Bank’s forecast for global-economic growth underscored weakness in Asia and Europe, sending emerging-market stocks toward a one-week low. Russia’s ruble weakened for a fourth day.
Shares of commodity producers and consumer-durables makers led the declines as copper and oil headed for their lowest prices since 2009. Jiangxi Copper Co. and KGHM Polska Miedz SA tumbled at least 5.9 percent, while Hyundai Mobis Co. fell with auto-industry companies. The ruble slid 1.4 percent versus the dollar amid growing concern Standard & Poor’s will cut the sovereign’s credit rating to junk. Stocks in the Philippines, a net oil importer, rose to a record.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index dropped 0.5 percent to 955.42 at 11:31 a.m. in London. The gauge is little changed since the start of 2015 as Brent crude lost a fifth of its value, offsetting a better-than-forecast increase in Chinese exports. The measure has declined for the past two years.
“There are still too many moving parts that blur the investment picture, including the drop in commodity prices and uncertainty on the global-growth outlook,” Simon Quijano-Evans, the London-based head of emerging-market research at Commerzbank AG, said by e-mail. “Until we see a floor in commodity and, especially, oil prices, intraday price action is going to be quite mixed.”
The World Bank said the global economy resembles a train pulled by a single engine, the U.S., with other regions dragging. The Washington-based lender cut its 2015 forecast to 3 percent from 3.4 percent, reduced projections for the euro area and Japan, and predicted a 2.9 percent slump in Russia. In Moscow, Economy Minister Alexei Ulyukayev acknowledged the government risks losing its investment-grade rating.
Commodities Impact
A gauge of emerging-market commodity companies fell for a third day, the longest streak in four weeks, as Brent dropped as much as 2.2 percent before paring losses. Copper futures in London retreated 5 percent, the most since 2011, heading for a sixth day of declines. Commodities have sunk to a 12-year low after a decade-long bull market led producers to boost output and a stronger dollar diminished their allure to investors.
“Copper historically is an indicator of the health of the global economy,” Alan Richardson, a Hong Kong-based investment manager at Samsung Asset Management Ltd., said.
Sesa Sterlite Ltd., an Indian iron-ore miner, plunged 8.1 percent, contributing the most to the drop in the raw-materials gauge. Jiangxi Copper fell 5.9 percent in Hong Kong, while KGHM Polska tumbled 6.7 percent. Hyundai Mobis slid 4 percent.
Junk Risk
The ruble weakened to 66.1665 versus the dollar after Ulyukayev said there’s a “fairly high” risk S&P will cut the world’s biggest energy exporter to a non-investment grade. Oil’s 60 percent collapse from last year’s high is pushing the economy toward recession after U.S. and European Union sanctions over Ukraine shut Russian companies out of foreign debt markets.
In South Africa, the FTSE/JSE Africa All Share Index declined 2 percent. Sasol, the world’s biggest maker of motor fuel-from-coal, slid 4.7 percent.
Philippine equities gained 1.2 percent and the peso added 0.2 percent amid bets that cheaper crude will cut costs for the nation, which imports almost all of its oil needs.
The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.4 percent. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of mainland companies listed in Hong Kong dropped 0.5 percent.
All the 10 industry groups in the emerging-markets gauge slid. The measure trades at 11.2 times the projected earnings of its members, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The MSCI World Index of developed markets is valued at 15.4 times.
The premium investors demand to hold emerging-market debt rather than U.S. Treasuries fell 2 basis points to 390, according to JPMorgan & Co. indexes. That pared the increase this month to 38 points.
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