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S&P 500 futures rise with dollar before Fed minutes as oil slips

7 January 2015 15:16 (UTC+04:00)
S&P 500 futures rise with dollar before Fed minutes as oil slips

By Bloomberg

U.S. equity-index futures climbed, signaling gains after five days of losses, and the dollar advanced to a 10-year high before minutes from December’s Federal Reserve policy meeting. Oil hit five-year lows in New York and London.

Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures rose 0.3 percent by 8:16 a.m. in London, while the Stoxx Europe 600 Index was little changed before euro area price data. Shanghai shares closed at a five-year high. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index added 0.2 percent. Crude fell 1.5 percent in New York and Brent in London traded below $50 a barrel. Yields on 10-year Japanese and German notes rose with rates on U.S. Treasuries after hitting record lows.

Oil’s bear market has continued into 2015, spurring concern that marginal producers will struggle to pay debts and frustrating central bank efforts to stave off deflation. The euro area will post its first drop in consumer prices since 2009 today, economists estimate, as the mean yield for benchmark securities issued by the U.S., Japan and Europe hits record lows. The Fed’s minutes may offer insight into the timing of the first interest-rate increase since 2006.

“While the steep drop in oil prices could cause a blowout somewhere in the financial market, lower oil prices will provide a huge benefit for most economies globally,” Mark Matthews, the Singapore-based head of Asia research at Bank Julius Baer & Co., which oversees about $286 billion, said by phone. “In an environment with extremely low yields, equities will be well supported. We’re in a multi-year bull market for stocks.”

WTI, Brent

West Texas Intermediate crude was at $47.19 a barrel, its lowest price since April 21, 2009. WTI futures declined 10 percent in the first three trading days of this year, extending 2014’s 46 percent tumble, the steepest since 2008.

Oil stockpiles in the U.S., the world’s largest consumer of crude, probably rose by 700,000 barrels last week, according to a Bloomberg survey of energy analysts before a government report today. The highest U.S. oil output in 30 years is a key factor in the global glut in the commodity, along with OPEC’s reluctance to reduce production.

Brent crude slipped as much as 2.3 percent to $49.92 a barrel in London, also a five-year low.

The S&P 500 dropped 0.9 percent yesterday to cap its longest losing streak in 13 months as small-cap and energy shares slid. The U.S. benchmark has almost tripled since a low in March 2009.

Europe’s benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index has fallen the last three trading days, closing at the lowest since Dec. 17 yesterday. The MSCI All Country World Index traded at 403.53, heading for its lowest closing level since Dec. 16. The Asia- Pacific gauge, which dropped 1.7 percent yesterday, was at 134.9.

Europe Equities

Just three of the 19 groups on the Stoxx 600 retreated today. EasyJet Plc climbed 1 percent. Europe’s second-biggest discount carrier reported a 3.2 percent increase in December passengers.

J Sainsbury Plc rose 3 percent. The U.K.’s third-largest supermarket chain said revenue at stores open at least a year fell 1.7 percent, excluding gasoline, in the 14 weeks ended Jan. 3. Analysts had forecast a 3.2 percent drop.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained 0.8 percent as Tencent Holdings Ltd., China’s biggest Internet company surged 3.7 percent amid analyst upgrades.

The Shanghai Composite Index swung between gains and losses before closing at the highest since August 2009. PetroChina Co., the nation’s biggest company, rallied 6 percent to a four-year high. The stock contributed to two-thirds of the gain in the Composite Index. Zijin Mining Group Co. and Shandong Gold Mining Co. climbed more than 6 percent to send material producers to the steepest advance among industry groups.

Bond Rush

Japanese government notes due in a decade paid as little as 0.265 percent, a record low, before dropping today. German 10- year bond yields rose 1 basis points to 0.45 percent after yesterday trading at the lowest ever. Earlier today 10-year Australian bond yields fell to as low as 2.61 percent, the lowest in data going back to 1969.

Ten-year Treasuries fell, with the yield rising two basis points to 1.96 percent after falling below 2 percent yesterday for the first time since October. The average yield among Group of Three benchmark securities dropped to 0.89 percent, the least ever based on Bloomberg data going back to 1989.

“With the sudden slide in oil prices, inflation expectations have receded and global stocks have declined, curtailing demand for risk,” said Satoshi Yamada, chief quantitative analyst at SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. in Tokyo. “That’s prompting investors to rush to bonds.”

Yen Drops

The greenback gained ground against major and emerging- market peers. The Dollar Spot Index climbed to 1,144.99, heading toward the highest close since the gauge tracking the U.S. currency against 10 major counterparts was started in late 2004. Indonesia’s rupiah weakened 0.5 percent and Malaysia’s ringgit slid 0.6 percent. Norway’s krone fell 0.3 percent.

The yen dropped 0.6 percent to 119.09 per dollar after strengthening 1 percent yesterday. The euro slid to $1.1843 earlier today, its weakest level since February 2006, before trading at $1.1884. The currency gained 0.5 percent to 141.53 against the yen after earlier reaching a two-month low.

Consumer prices in the 18-nation euro region probably fell 0.1 percent in December, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg before today’s data, after rising 0.3 percent in November.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi sparked the euro’s slump last week, saying in an interview that he couldn’t rule out the possibility of deflation in the region. The comments stoked speculation that the ECB will embark on full- scale quantitative easing. Investors are also weighing the possibility of Greece exiting the euro area if parties opposed to spending cuts prevail in this month’s snap election.

Vietnam devalued the dong by weakening its reference rate for the second time since June, according to a statement on the central bank’s website posted late yesterday. The currency is allowed to trade as much as 1 percent either side of the rate, which was reduced by 1 percent to 21,458 dong per dollar, effective today.

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