Emerging-market stocks drop on oil as Russian credit risk surges
By Bloomberg
Emerging-market stocks headed for the lowest level in almost three weeks as oil’s drop below $50 a barrel spurred the longest slump on record in a gauge of energy companies. Russia’s ruble fell to a two-week low.
Dubai Islamic Bank dropped for a third day, pushing the DFM General Index to post the worst performance among global benchmark indexes. Oil & Natural Gas Corp. led Indian shares to the steepest drop since 2013. The ruble slid 3.2 percent versus the dollar, while credit default swaps on Russian sovereign debt surged to the highest level in almost six years.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 1 percent to 931.55 at 1:14 p.m. in London, extending its four-day loss to 2.6 percent. The energy-industry subgroup on the gauge tumbled for an 11th day as West Texas Intermediate crude traded 2.1 percent lower at $49 a barrel, its lowest price since April 2009.
“The weakness in oil is depressing appetite for risk and emerging-market assets,” Michael Wang, a strategist at Amiya Capital LLP in London, said by e-mail. “It has taken many by surprise. There is an expectation in the market that the oil price could correct further as inventories remain high. There could be further pressure on emerging markets from weaker commodity prices and a stronger dollar.”
WTI plunged 46 percent last year, its biggest drop since 2008, as the Federal Reserve ended its bond-purchase program and prepared to raise interest rates. That sent assets in oil- exporting nations such as Russia plummeting, while markets of net energy exporters such as Turkey rallied. The emerging- markets index has posted two years of declines.
Gulf Stocks
Every major stock market in the Persian Gulf region fell today, with Dubai’s benchmark gauge retreating as much as 5.8 percent. Dubai Islamic Bank lost 3.6 percent. The Tadawul All Share Index in Saudi Arabia, where hydrocarbon sales accounted for almost 90 percent of the government’s revenue last year, dropped for a third day.
India’s S&P BSE Sensex, which rallied 30 percent in 2014 on expected gains from cheaper oil, declined 3.1 percent as concern that global economic growth is slowing outweighed that optimism. ONGC, the country’s biggest energy explorer, tumbled the most since May.
Russia’s credit risk climbed for a sixth day on concern the sovereign’s credit rating will be downgraded as soon as this week. Five-year CDS increased 50 basis points to 606, the highest since March 2009. The swaps rose 175 basis points in the past six days.
The ruble traded at 62.8385 a dollar, extending its two-day drop to 11 percent. The currency slid 41 percent in 2014. The Micex Index advanced 2 percent, boosted by gains in OAO Magnit and OAO Gazprom.
Stock Valuations
The emerging-markets index has lost 2.6 percent since the start of the year and trades at 10.8 times its 12-month projected earnings, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The MSCI World Index has lost 2.5 percent and is valued at a multiple of 15.2.
All 10 industry groups in the developing-nations gauge fell, led by energy and information-technology shares. China’s Cnooc Ltd. and PetroChina Co. sank at least 2.4 percent in Hong Kong. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index lost 1.8 percent. The Shanghai Composite Index was little changed as a gauge of small-company shares rallied the most in 18 months.
The Taiex Index slid 2.4 percent as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. fell 4.3 percent.
South African shares rose 1.3 percent as Gold Fields Ltd. and AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. jumped at least 6.6 percent. Gold climbed for a third day as slumping equity markets spurred demand for a haven.
Ukraine’s July 2017 bonds slumped below 57 cents on the dollar, extending a record monthly selloff in December, amid concern a deepening recession and mounting debt are increasing the prospects of a sovereign default.
The premium investors demand to hold emerging-market debt rather than U.S. Treasuries widened seven basis points to 383, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. indexes.
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