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Euro-area economy menaced by relapse threat as ECB weighs action

6 January 2015 13:46 (UTC+04:00)
Euro-area economy menaced by relapse threat as ECB weighs action

By Bloomberg

A gauge of euro-area services and manufacturing signaled economic growth slowed in the final quarter of 2014, supporting calls for more stimulus by the European Central Bank.

A Purchasing Managers’ Index for both industries rose to 51.4 from 51.1 in November, London-based Markit Economics said today. While that’s above the 50 mark that divides expansion from contraction, the reading falls short of a preliminary reading of 51.7 published on Dec. 16. The data suggest the euro- area economy expanded 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter, Markit said.

“The euro zone will look upon 2014 as a year in which recession was avoided by the narrowest of margins, but the weakness of the survey data suggests there’s no guarantee that a renewed downturn will not be seen in 2015,” said Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit. “The weakness of the PMI in December will add to calls for more aggressive central-bank stimulus.”

ECB officials, who are set to announce their next policy decision on Jan. 22, are currently debating whether to buy government bonds to boost consumer prices and economic growth. President Mario Draghi has signaled support for quantitative easing, while policy makers including Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann favor not acting at this time.

While a measure of German manufacturing and services activity unexpectedly rose for the first time in three months, the rate of expansion remained “lackluster” compared with momentum recorded earlier last year, Markit said.

GDP Estimate

Output in France fell for an eighth month in December as a slight recovery in services failed to offset a deepening downturn at the country’s factories. A gauge for Italy showed a return to contraction.

A first estimate of euro-area gross domestic product in the fourth quarter will be published on Feb. 13. Economists in Bloomberg’s monthly survey predicted in December that the economy expanded 0.2 percent in the final three months of the year, matching the growth rate of the previous period.

Inflation probably turned negative at the end of 2014, aggravating concern at the ECB that a slump in oil prices will help trigger a deflationary spiral. That data is due from Eurostat tomorrow.

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