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Dollar rises to 7-year high versus yen on economy; aussie slides

1 December 2014 12:23 (UTC+04:00)
Dollar rises to 7-year high versus yen on economy; aussie slides
By Bloomberg

The dollar rose to a seven-year high versus the yen before data forecast to show U.S. manufacturing outpaced global peers, reinforcing the outlook for higher interest rates in the world’s largest economy.

The dollar extended gains against the currencies of commodity-producing nations after oil slumped to a five-year low. Australia’s dollar slid to a four-year low on speculation demand for the nation’s gold will wane after voters in Switzerland rejected a referendum to force the Swiss National Bank to hold more of the metal. Australia is the world’s largest gold producer after China. The Swiss franc weakened.

“The dollar will probably remain strong amid declines in oil prices and dovishness among other nations’ central banks,” said Toshiya Yamauchi, a senior analyst in Tokyo at Ueda Harlow Ltd., which provides margin-trading services. “If oil prices continue to fall, that would build the case for easy monetary policy in more places than just Europe and Japan.”

The dollar rose 0.2 percent to 118.88 yen as of 12:49 p.m. in Tokyo from Nov. 28, after touching 119.03, the most since August 2007. It was little changed at $1.2451 per euro. The Japanese currency dropped 0.2 percent to 147.99 per euro.

The pace of U.S. manufacturing was faster than initially estimated in November, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before Markit Economics releases the final reading today. An index measuring the business activity was at 55, compared with a flash estimate of 54.7, according to the survey. Numbers above 50 signal expansion.

China, Japan

By contrast, China’s official manufacturing PMI fell to 50.3 last month, from 50.8 in October, and compared with a median analyst estimate of 50.5. Japan’s reading, as measured by Markit Economics, was at 52, versus an initial projection of 52.1.

The Federal Reserve is moving to raise interest rates for the first time since 2006, while the Bank of Japan and European Central Bank ease monetary policy. Futures traders see about 53 percent odds that the U.S. benchmark rate will rise in October for the first time since 2006.

Japanese policy makers unexpectedly expanded their quantitative-easing program on Oct. 31, lifting the annual target for enlarging the monetary base to 80 trillion yen ($673 billion), from 60 trillion yen to 70 trillion yen. The BOJ offered to buy more than a trillion yen of government debt from the market today.

ECB Stimulus

ECB President Mario Draghi said last week that the central bank is open to buying a wide variety of assets for further stimulus. The ECB has already embarked on purchases of covered bonds and asset-backed securities. Officials meet to set policy on Dec. 4.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the U.S. currency against 10 trading partners, rose 0.1 percent to 1,107.66, heading for the highest closing since March 2009. The index posted a fifth monthly gain in November, the longest streak since March 2013.

The dollar extended gains after West Texas Intermediate fell below $65 a barrel to the lowest intraday level since July 2009 today, extending a 10 percent drop from Nov. 28.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries decided on Nov. 27 to keep production targets unchanged.

“The dollar continues to be supported by the drop in oil prices,” said Daisaku Ueno, the Tokyo-based chief currency strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co. “It’s positive for U.S. economy, and as a result, we’re unlikely to see the Fed extend easy monetary policy.”

Gold Vote

Australia’s dollar dropped after the “Save Our Swiss Gold” proposal, stipulating the Swiss National Bank hold at least 20 percent of its balance sheet in gold and never sell any bullion, was voted down by 77 percent to 23 percent. Swiss President Thomas Jordan had termed the measure an “invitation to speculators” that could have hurt the economy.

“Gold is an important driver of the Aussie dollar,” said Raiko Shareef, a markets analyst at Bank of New Zealand Ltd. in Wellington. “Sentiment is quite fragile in Aussie right now given what’s happening in metals generally.”

The Aussie dropped 0.7 percent to 84.46 U.S. cents, after touching 84.17 cents, the least since July 2010. New Zealand’s currency slid 0.3 percent to 78.14 U.S. cents. The Aussie and kiwi fell for a third day.

Gold slumped 1.3 percent to $1,152.52 per ounce, following a 2 percent slide on Nov. 28.

The Swiss franc fell 0.1 percent to 96.66 centimes per dollar. It declined 0.1 percent to 1.20351 per euro, widening the gap from the SNB’s 1.20-per-euro cap.

“The SNB will continue to enforce the minimum exchange rate with the utmost determination and is prepared to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities,” the central bank said in a statement yesterday. “The SNB will take further measures immediately if required.”

The central bank said it was “pleased to hear” of yesterday’s referendum outcome.

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