German bond gain pushes yield toward three-week low as ECB meets
By Bloomberg
Germany's 10-year yields approached the lowest level in three weeks as European Central Bank officials gathered in Frankfurt to set monetary policy.
Spanish bonds were little changed as investors awaited signals of whether the ECB will extend its asset-purchase plan to cover sovereign bonds. The central bank, which cut its main refinancing rate to a record 0.05 percent in September, will keep borrowing costs unchanged today, according to all 55 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. ECB President Mario Draghi will give a press conference at 2:30 p.m. Frankfurt time. Spain is due to sell debt due between 2017 and 2024 today.
Germany's 10-year yield fell less than one basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, to 0.82 percent as of 7:23 a.m. London time. The rate dropped to 0.80 percent on Nov. 4, the lowest since Oct.16. The price of the 1 percent bund due in August 2024 was at 101.655 percent of face value.
The rate on similar-maturity Spanish bonds was 2.20 percent.
The ECB, which has already started purchases of covered bonds, and is set to start buying of asset-backed securities this year, will eventually extend its program into government debt, according to BNP Paribas SA and Pacific Investment Management Co. BNP estimated the institution may start buying 400 billion euros ($501 billion) of sovereign bonds before year- end, with purchases distributed in accordance with each country's contribution to the ECB's capital.
ECB Stimulus
With inflation languishing below the ECB's target of just under 2 percent and data showing the economic recovery ebbing, Draghi has said his stimulus measures are intended to increase the ECB's balance sheet back toward early 2012 levels. The ECB's balance sheet now stands at 2.05 trillion euros, below the 2012 peak of 3.1 trillion euros and 2.7 trillion euros at the start of that year.
In order to achieve its inflation mandate, the ECB has also introduced a negative deposit rate and started a program of targeted loans. While the ECB has previously bought sovereign debt under its now-defunct Securities Market Program, it has stopped short of the full-scale quantitative easing used by its counterparts in the U.S., U.K. and Japan.
The Federal Reserve, which ended its third round of QE last month, owns about 20 percent of outstanding U.S. debt, while the Bank of Japan boosted annual debt buying to a record 80 trillion yen ($699 billion) last week.
In the U.K., which has about 1.1 trillion pounds ($1.8 trillion) of outstanding conventional gilts, the Bank of England has kept its asset-purchase target unchanged at 375 billion pounds since July 2012.
Benchmark German 10-year yields were little changed on Oct. 2, the day of the ECB's previous policy meeting. The rate touched a record-low 0.715 percent last month.
German government securities returned 8 percent this year through yesterday, Bloomberg World Bond Indexes show. Spain's earned 13 percent, and Italy's 12 percent.
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