U.S. Stock-index futures rise as Republicans win Senate majority
By Bloomberg
U.S. equity-index futures rose after Republicans won their first Senate majority in eight years, taking control of both chambers of Congress, and data showed companies added more workers than estimated in October.
Standard & Poor's 500 Index futures expiring in December climbed 0.6 percent to 2,018.4 at 8:27 a.m. in New York. The underlying gauge fell 0.3 percent yesterday as energy companies led losses. It is still within 0.3 percent of a record, having rebounded 8 percent from an Oct. 15 low. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures gained 94 points, or 0.5 percent, to 17,399.
Republicans retained control of the House and won enough seats to reclaim a Senate majority held by Democrats since 2006. They will control both for the remainder of President Barack Obama's term.
"Republicans are seen as more business friendly, so it's not surprising if markets react positively to the mid-term results," Veronika Pechlaner, who helps oversee about $2.3 billion at Ashburton Ltd., said by phone from Jersey, the Channel Islands. "It could make it easier for decisions to be passed, and clearer decision-making is a good thing in U.S. politics. Markets saw some volatility yesterday, so we could see a bit of a rebound today. Earnings have been very reassuring."
Fourth quarters of midterm years have produced average equity gains of 8 percent in the past 65 years, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac. They've been followed by rallies of almost that much in the next three months, making the average 16 percent two-quarter rally the best combination of the election cycles.
Historical Gains
The S&P 500 has risen an average 15.1 percent in calendar years when a Democratic president has been opposed by a Republican-controlled Congress since 1945, according to S&P Capital IQ equity strategist Sam Stovall. The returns are nearly identical when Republicans control both the White House and Congress.
Stocks haven't needed a united Congress to post gains during the bull market that began in March 2009. Since Nov. 2, 2010, when Republicans won a majority in the House while Democrats held the Senate, the S&P 500 has gained 69 percent, including a 30 percent rally in 2013 that was the biggest annual advance since 1997.
Republicans picked up seats in the states of West Virginia, Montana, Arkansas, South Dakota, Iowa, Colorado and North Carolina. Louisiana will go to a run-off, as neither candidate won more than 50 percent of the vote.
Mitch McConnell, a Kentucky Republican, is poised to become the next Senate majority leader and set the legislative agenda for the final two years of Barack Obama's presidency. McConnell has pledged to chip away at the 2010 health-care law and combat government efforts to curb carbon emissions.
Payrolls Data
S&P 500 companies are beating analysts' earnings estimates at the fastest pace in four years, while recent economic data have pointed to improvements in the U.S. labor market and consumer sentiment. Of the S&P 500 members that have reported results so far this quarter, 81 percent topped profit projections, while 61 percent beat sales estimates, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Companies in the U.S. added 230,000 workers to payrolls in October, figures from Roseland, New Jersey-based ADP Research Institute showed today. The median forecast of 44 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for an advance of 220,000. Estimates ranged from gains of 193,000 to 265,000.
The private data come before a Labor Department report this week that may show private payrolls rose by 223,000 last month, according to a Bloomberg survey. The jobless rate probably held at a six-year low of 5.9 percent, the survey showed.
Time Warner
Time Warner Inc. advanced 3.6 percent after saying that third-quarter profit, excluding restructuring costs and a one- time tax benefit, was 97 cents a share. Analysts had predicted 94 cents on average.
Morgan Stanley rose 1.2 percent after saying it will recognize a $1.3 billion tax benefit in the fourth quarter from changing its brokerage subsidiary to a corporation.
Activision Blizzard Inc. rallied 5.3 percent. The largest U.S. video-game maker posted third-quarter sales and profit that exceeded analysts' estimates. Chief Executive Officer Bobby Kotick credited the results to the new Destiny title and strong sales of existing games including the online World of Warcraft.
Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp. gained 3.1 percent after raising its full-year adjusted-earnings forecast to at least $2.57 a share, from an earlier prediction of $2.54.
Tesla Motors Inc. added 1.1 percent before reporting quarterly results after the market closes today. Tesla's delivery of electric vehicles may exceed its own forecast of 7,800 in the third quarter, according to the average analyst estimate.
TripAdvisor Inc. tumbled 13 percent after cutting its growth forecast for 2014 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization to the low 20s percent from a previous estimate of the high 20s. The operator of a travel- research website also reported third-quarter earnings that missed analysts' projections.
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